Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

But the unionist alliance (C-PSC-PP) is possible? Surely hard for PSC too.
Look like there is no clear way out.

[Zinneke]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat and non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

[Zinneke]

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.

If they lose the popular vote but win a majority of seats then, as in 2015, they can only ask for a referendum. And since they have already gone through that "process", I think they'd have to seriously rethink their strategy.

[Zinneke]

PSC can still take a seat off of JxC in Barcelona.

[Zinneke]

Caudillo Albiol almost in tears. Some Clown DJ at the ANC headquarters. This is gunna be a fun night.

[Zinneke]

PP have lost a seat to Cs.

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

I think La Barceloneta swinging to ERC shows that the votes that some the CeC and Colau lost in this election went towards independence after the way Rajoy reacted. Barceloneta is still considered a more "Catalanist" district though. That would also explain how the actual number of votes for pro-independence parties increased, that and an increased turnout in rural areas for JxC for some reason.

I think a Spanish person will answer your second question better but I would hypothesise Barceloneta and Barcelona in general voted for Colau for reasons much more local than the separatist issue (tourism, social housing, housing speculation prices), and that being indepe or not was pretty irrelevant.

[Zinneke]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

Tabernia is not a serious political project, its a demonstration* that some political entrepreneurs believe in one set of legal and moral norms for a specific nation or identity tied to a nation, and another set for another people with a distinct identity of their own.

See also : The Brussels Periphery.


*by a group with links to Societat Civil Catalana, but thats another matter.

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

Just to revive this question, here is a poll showing ERC overtaking Colau in municipal elections.

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/948879979844112384/photo/1

[Zinneke]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

En Marche can only exist in a (semi-)Presidentialist system where one candidate has the initials EM.

[Zinneke]

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

Didn't C's say just after the result that they would only govern if electoral reform is on the table? I imagine this is what they will want implemented in the new constitutional reforms regardless, but if they end up with that result in that electoral system they will only have themselves to blame. Just as the LibDems have themselves to blame for the AV vote going to a referendum in UK.

[Zinneke]

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

[Zinneke]

What is C's position on the rather draconian censorship laws the PP has been introducing? It should be a litmus test of their "liberal" credentials.

[Zinneke]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.

I honestly think C's would be shooting themselves in the foot getting Valls in because the issues Barcelona is facing as a city (housing, overpopulation, tourism mismanagement, pollution) don't fit his profile and he even said he was considering it to refight the referendum at a local level. Even Garcia Albiol called this out as unwise and he's hardly an psephological authority on bringing national issues into local debates.

On the other hand if I'm anti-Colau and anti-seperatist, I can see how C's would be able to garner votes based on a solid no-nonsense platform of 'the PSOE governed for years, the nationalists can't be trusted, and Colau is incompetent.

[Zinneke]

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

If you have google translate on hand or can read spanish :

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180104/erc-superaria-a-colau-en-las-municipales-segun-el-barometro-de-barcelona-6531160

Looks like she would keep the initial majority she formed.

This actually seems to contradict what I said :



My understanding from Catalan friends though is that she is seen as somewhat of a dud. Remember all those Guardian/Vice articles about the Superilles in Poblenou that were going to make a hip district? The locals rebelled against that. Has the tourism issue improved? Ask any Catalan and they say it has not, because the only solution is having border control, so why protest anyway. Has the bloated housing market been cracked down upon? She might have tackled AirBnB but ultimately the Airbnb issue is hiding a bigger problem in major European cities, which is that housing in a European inner city/capital is seen as a safe investment, be it for people who just move to the periphery of the city, or Chinese businessmen/mafia wanting to hide their lunch money from the CPC (which is a real problem in Catalonia). And it is not seen as actual housing, for people to live in. In reality, the referendum was probably a welcome distraction.

 And yeah, Colau probably conducted herself better than anybody during the crisis, but it has probably polarised Catalan society enough for an ERC swing in places like Barceloneta (which we talked about previously). I just didnt think it would be replicated in local elections.  like tack says though we can't be sure until the campaign where people like Valls could be seriously exposed to real problems.

[Zinneke]

Well CUP are asking their membership whether to vote Porra in as president so they are holding the "process" by the balls...again. We know how this finishes though.

[Zinneke]

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

Sanchez doesn't win from this that much. He wanted to be PM desperately but now he is walking on a tightrope and his only shot at PM is going to be his attempt to negotiate a new constitution with his seperatist "allies" in the Congress on one side and the PP in the Senate on the other. Its simply unfeasible and he will fail, even if he is saying the right things. There is a reason Rajoy did not resign and call elections : the PP want Sanchez and the PSOE to fail first.

Rivera probably has the best cards to play but he made a major mistake supporting Rajoy rather than the motion to censor him. For all the (ironic) "Catalufo" schtick he gets from populares, it is a classic example of Rivera not seeing the bigger political picture and thinking the world revolves around Catalonia. Sanchez schooled him yesterday in the debate. If it does go to elections he might be the big winner but he is still capable of making the campaign a referendum about Catalonia again, and that may only work in Catalonia.

As long as Iglesias is head of Podemos people will reference his new house and he will lose the argument. It happened again just this morning. Its a shame, because Podemos are the ones bringing up real problems in Spanish society (disposable contracts worse than almost anywhere in Europe, an unskilled generation staying and a skilled one leaving, housing bubbles forming up again and the incestuous relationship between the banks and the politicians looking for funds for their new "projects") rather than nationalist pissing contests.

I guess the big winner is Feijoo, the Galician minister who will prbably next PP leader. PP seem to be immune to corruption scandals and he will likely come across as the most mature next to Rivera, Sanchez and Iglesias. And the Catalan nationalists who will recuperate their Govern powers at the very least. Then I fear there will be another Vox surge.


EDIT : and the obvious big winner, the PNV and the Basque COuntry as a whole : http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180601/443973609409/mocion-censura-pnv-aitor-esteban.html

[Zinneke]

I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.

Depends on the region. His poll numbers might rise in Catalonia for being the moderate hero who engaged in dialogue. Andalucia on the other hand, after seeing the Basque country (the third richest community) get a special hand out...