NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Suburbia]

I personally think big name Democrats should bypass the Norcross-DiVincenzo machine and primary Bob Menendez.

He's toxic and should be forced to step down.

However, no Republican has won a Senate race in New Jersey since 1972 and 2024 is a presidential year, making it unlikely unless DeSantis or some other Republican with a good fit in NJ can make it competitive....

Why not former interim Sen. Jeff Chiesa, who filled the late Frank Lautenberg's seat with pride for a few months before Cory Booker won the special in 2013?

[Suburbia]

Unlikely any of them and it will be the wrong time to try to take the seat. A presidential year won't be the time. The senate candidate will likely have to beat out the Democrats' presidential nominee by at least 5-7 points to win.

You don't think they can do it even against a toxic Bob Menendez?

Do you think Democrats can primary him? He's toxic.

[Suburbia]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

[Suburbia]

Nobody thinks there's a reasonable chance he tries to pass the seat to his son after the congressional election this year?

Nepotism rules.

NJ Dems should look for candidates NOW.

But I guess that is what this state deserves after electing old Lautenberg against Doug Forrester. NJ could have let Forrester run until 2008 and let him lose in '08 under the Obama wave.

[Suburbia]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

Given that he didn't even seek reelection in 2013 in a great environment for Republicans in NJ, I don't think he's interested.

Christie scheduled the special election when he did so that he would be insulated from higher turnout in the urban areas. I think Chiesa may have had a shot if Christie scheduled the special on election day 2013. It's easy to see Christie having had big enough coattails to have made the special competitive.

He did not want to run for the seat full term because his kids were small, a decade later, they are old enough to chart their own future.

Chiesa is one of the Christie cabinet members not to have baggage from Bridgegate....he left the cabinet before the GWB bridge scandal....

Chiesa would make Menendez sweat in Middlesex, Bergen and Burlington, counties you need to win as a challenger....

I like Chiesa...I won't mind him but knowing that NJ does not elect Republicans federally....Chiesa would be a good 2025 candidate for governor.

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.

I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic  communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.

Then how did Chris Christie win in 2009 then? He won Middlesex, Burlington counties.

[Suburbia]

Inb4 Dr. Oz moves back here because he’s decided to run for Senate in his actual home state.

Oz would lose to whoever the Republican is. Oz is seen as a disgrace. Losing to a stroke victim. Despite the good debate.

Jennifer Beck would be a good choice.

Beck, Jeff Chiesa would be good choices.

Kean Jr. should stay in the House. Bramnick is too boring and old.

[Suburbia]

Clifford Case (if he would be alive and well)))

Yes, if he was alive. Ironically, he probably was one of the first "RINOS" to lose to a true conservative in the primary, Jeff Bell.

Bell beat Case in the primary and went on to lose to Bill Bradley, who was a former NBA star and Hall of Famer.

Case could have beaten Bradley.

NJ Dems need to primary Menendez, right away. Right now.

[Suburbia]

How about former congressman Mike Ferguson? When he announced he was not going to seek reelection to the House 16 years ago, he said it was because he wanted to spend more time with his family. By now, his children are probably all grown up, so maybe he could be coaxed into re-entering politics.

Ferguson could make it competitive, he has the financial funding to do it, his family is rich....he comes from Central Jersey, a swing area, but Menendez is going to assault him on abortion, and New Jersey is a pro-choice state.