Will Cuomo carry Staten Island in 2022?

[Suburbia]

Probably not, but it will be close.

[Suburbia]

If Max Rose runs for a rematch against Malliotakis in 2022, Rose, Schumer and Cusick could pull Cuomo to the finish line on SI.

[Suburbia]

No, and in fact, I don't think Cuomo wins any counties outside of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and maybe Queens and Westchester.

In all of New York? Beyond doubtful. There are more upstate counties he's likely to win, including Erie.

That's not going to happen, but I think it's possible, even likely that Cuomo wins even fewer counties than last time. His 15 could easily go to 10 in 2022, even if he wins.

The 2020 Presidential Election was D+4.5%, and we're going to approximate that that was roughly the "national environment" in 2020. Even in a midterm that goes decently for the Democrats, the national vote would be more like R+2. Just applying a blanket 6.5% rightward shift to Cuomo's results loses him Onondaga, Staten Island, and Suffolk Counties. Once you factor in Cuomo's declining popularity and the disproportionate dislike for him Upstate, I don't think him losing Erie and/or Monroe County is at all unlikely (both were under 52% Cuomo). I wouldn't be shocked if all he wins are Tompkins, Westchester, and Nassau Counties + the 4 Boroughs in NYC. He will certainly win in any case, but he could get wiped out Upstate.

I think Cuomo can win Nassau, Nassau is more diverse than Suffolk. If Cuomo loses the suburbs, but NYC cancels out the rest of the state, a lot of Senate and Assembly Democrats will go down on the ballot....