NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[Suburbia]

Morris County is still conservative-leaning.

Jay Webber or Anthony Bucco Jr. should win.

Tossup/Lean R.

[Suburbia]

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

[Suburbia]

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It’ll be 10-2 at the very worst.

Oh yeah, I suspect 10-2 is probably the most likely end result. But 12-0 is within the bell curve of probability, albeit an outside chance and a slim probability right now.  

You guys are forgetting that the Morris County GOP has a huge bench

Any Italian or Irish NJ Republican can win this seat by not nationalizing Trump

Two things. 1 - Murphy won this seat by 1%, even though he barely won Suburban Somerset, and he ran against Christie rather then Trump. 2 - I think you should check your ratings scale since you rated a opem 75-25 Clinton senate seat in New York and Westchester as a Lean R.

1) Where is the 2017 NJ GOV Murphy vs. Guadagno results by congressional district? I would like to see it.
2) Morris County is a traditional Republican stronghold of affluent and educated suburbs. I say Lean R/Tossup, because a Bucco or Jay Webber could run.

[Suburbia]

It's Webber's or Becchi's to lose.

[Suburbia]

Who should NJ GOP go with:

Assemblyman Tony Bucco, aligned himself with Jerome Corsi, a right-wing journalist and author who said that former President Barack Obama was not born in America, essentially a birther?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/04/morris_county_republicans_birt.html

State Senator Joe Pennachio, who created a Nationalist agenda in the early 1990s after rampant disillusionment with Reagan-Bush?

https://web.archive.org/web/20080516221815/http://www.politickernj.com/files/2008-03-17_NationalistAgenda.pdf

If Bucco is the GOP nominee, Sherill could win with tying Bucco to Corsi!

It's still Lean R/Tossup. It's still Christie country.

[Suburbia]

Lean D.

God new Jersey is going to be a bloodbath for 2018 republicans isn't it? NJ-02 is on the fast track to being triaged with Van Drew, NJ-11 is now a tossup at worst, NJ-07 is moving towards tossup, NJ-03 is blessed with MacArthur and his Health Care fiasco, and NJ-04's Chris Smith is on the retirement watch-list due to his age and moderation. This congressional map was drawn to be a 6-6, and their is now an outside chance of it being 12-0 in 2019. A total dummymander.

I'd say 11-1 is a serious possibility; I really doubt Dems pick up Smith's seat even if he retires.

I have always thought it was really weird that a solid D state like NJ has a 6-6 congressional delegation.

NJ elects Republicans under right circumstances, there are plenty of moderate Republicans in NJ....Christie Whitman, Tom Kean, Chris Christie.

[Suburbia]

What about Rosemary Becchi, a lawyer and lobbyist?

https://www.mcguirewoods.com/People/B/Rosemary-Becchi.aspx#overview

Becchi vs. Sherill would be a tossup.

[Suburbia]

Who should NJ GOP go with:

Assemblyman Tony Bucco, aligned himself with Jerome Corsi, a right-wing journalist and author who said that former President Barack Obama was not born in America, essentially a birther?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/04/morris_county_republicans_birt.html

State Senator Joe Pennachio, who created a Nationalist agenda in the early 1990s after rampant disillusionment with Reagan-Bush?

https://web.archive.org/web/20080516221815/http://www.politickernj.com/files/2008-03-17_NationalistAgenda.pdf

If Bucco is the GOP nominee, Sherill could win with tying Bucco to Corsi!

It's still Lean R/Tossup. It's still Christie country.

Add to that list the strongest candidate (who I guess I'm stumping for now):

Assemblyman Jay Webber (Morris Plains):

Former chair of the NJGOP, graduate of Johns Hopkins and Harvard Law, elected to the Assembly in 2007 at age 35, a longtime darling of the state's suburban right wing and constantly mentioned as a statewide candidate.

Webber is probably the cleanest candidate with regard to Trump and Christie, who both remain inordinately popular with the North Jersey party. I think he has a much stronger chance than Bucco or Pennacchio (who has a ton of non-scandalous baggage).

Webber is the future of the NJ GOP post-Christie, along with Chris DiPiazza, Michael Whelan, etc.

Webber would be the safest choice to win NJ-11. He would be the Democrats' worst nightmare, because he is inoffensive, and is a typical American suburban conservative. 

[Suburbia]

Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christie Whitman is considering running for the NJ 11 seat.

https://www.insidernj.com/source-kate-whitman-mulling-cd11-run/

[Suburbia]

Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris) is in. He is running for the GOP House nomination for NJ-11.

https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/2018/02/03/jay-webber-running-congress-replace-rodney-frelinghuysen/303588002/

http://jaywebber.org/

[Suburbia]

Antony Ghee may be seen as a "Uncle Tom" for living in the "white suburbs" and being an investment banker by some far-left activists in urban Essex and other places when this news comes out.

He's not "down with the struggle".

But some of those activists don't live in NJ-11.