Do you think Christie will run? Why or why not? (user search)
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  Do you think Christie will run? Why or why not? (search mode)
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Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Do you think Christie will run? Why or why not?  (Read 921 times)
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bronz4141
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Posts: 19,666
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« on: June 11, 2015, 11:23:17 PM »

No.  Because he can count, and he will be able to count the small amount of money folks will contribute to him. 

All of the GOP candidates fall into niches.  There's the libertarians (Paul), the religious/social conservatives (Santorum, Huckabee, Carson), the Establishment "business" Republicans (Jeb, Mitt), the National Security Republicans (Graham), and the Club for Growth-types (Rubio is trying to fill this void).  These guys will always have SOMEBODY funnelling them money, because even if they lose, they advocate a specific position that the advocates of that position(s) want to be advanced in a Republican Administration.  One way to do that is THEIR man making a strong showing and an impression on the delegates who will not just rubber-stamp the candidate, but write the platform and set the tone for the 2016 fall campaign. 

Then you have the Tent-Exanders and Map-Expanders.  Rubio's a bit of an expander, but he's grown beyond that role.  In this category are usually Governors who often don't have a current voting record on Federal issues, but who have the abilty (when needed) to be a bit amorphous, ideologically, during the fall campaign.  The really valuable "expanders" are those Governors that can bring in their state and turn it from blue or purple to red.  These guys get their money on the merits; on the perception that they're "electable" and can "carry their home state".  In this category are Kasich, Walker, Snyder, Pataki, and Christie.

Of all of these guys, who stands out?  Kasich, of course.  He's got the most experience, he's the best ideological fit for the GOP these days of that bunch.   When you look at these guys, what is clear is that Kasich has the most on-paper ability to expand the map and Walker has the most "star-quality".  Snyder has less of what Kasich and Walker have, but he's not ticked too many people off, and his record, for a Republican or a GOP-leaning moderate, is OK.

What's happened is that Christie has lost his reason to run.  There's no market for him.  No one believes he'll beat Hillary, and if defeat is ineitable, the GOP would rather lose with a guy they like.  No one likes Christie; people only liked him because they thought he could win, and no one thinks that now.
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