Senator Gillibrand

[Mr. Morden]

Byron Brown - mayor of Buffalo and NY's second-largest city.  Byron would be a shoe-in if Pater were white, but since Byron Brown is also black, he adds little in political capital.

Paterson and Quinn should arrange a trade, whereby Paterson appoints a black (Brown), and gives the political credit to Quinn, while Quinn appoints a woman (Schakowsky), and gives the political credit to Paterson.  Both of them benefit politically, and there is zero net change in the racial and gender composition of the Senate.

Of course, things don't quite work that way.....

[Mr. Morden]

It wont be Gillibrand.  Democrats are not going to lose a House seat to win a safe Senate seat. 

Does Paterson actually care about that?  About one stupid House seat, which has no bearing on Paterson, since Paterson is in the state government rather than the federal government?  Did Bill Clinton care about Lloyd Bentsen's Senate seat when he was picked for Secretary of the Treasury?  Did Barack Obama care about the governorship of Arizona when he picked Napolitano for Sec. of HS?

[Mr. Morden]

It wont be Gillibrand.  Democrats are not going to lose a House seat to win a safe Senate seat. 

Does Paterson actually care about that?  About one stupid House seat, which has no bearing on Paterson, since Paterson is in the state government rather than the federal government?  Did Bill Clinton care about Lloyd Bentsen's Senate seat when he was picked for Secretary of the Treasury?  Did Barack Obama care about the governorship of Arizona when he picked Napolitano for Sec. of HS?

One House seat can lead to several. 

How often does a governor or president pass over a member of House for a job just to protect that House seat?  I've already listed cases in which presidents sacrificed much higher offices for their party in order to get particular Cabinet officers that they liked.

On a different topic, I think Kennedy is toast.  She's at 76.0 on Intrade to get the seat, so betting against her would be a good $-making decision.  Meanwhile, "Burris to be seated" is at 93.2, which is probably actually fairly accurate.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone who was betting against her on Intrade just made a lot of money.  She was above 80 (absolutely ridiculous), and has now dropped all the way to 3.6.  Cuomo's now the overwhelming frontrunner on Intrade.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Drudge and Politico says the Post is reporting this, which makes it ultra-sketch, but MSNBC is reporting this as the New York Times.  But MSNBC isn't really filled with people smart enough to know the difference.

Uh....the NYT is definitely reporting it.  Didn't you see this link posted upthread?:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/nyregion/22caroline.html

Of course, their only source is "a person told of her decision".

[Mr. Morden]

CNN also says that Caroline has decided to opt out "according to three Democratic sources":

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/21/caroline.kennedy/

So this isn't just the NY Post.

[Mr. Morden]

Kennedy's rebounded to 8.0 on Intrade.  Still way below where she was before, but she was down to 3.6 a couple of hours ago.  (No, I don't think that really means anything.  I just find it amusing to track.)

[Mr. Morden]

Let's bet NOW!!!! on Intrade. It could be the deal of the century.

She's slowly regaining ground, minute by minute.  It's now:

Cuomo 50.0
Maloney 25.0
Kennedy 15.0

Presumably, within the next couple of hours, we'll have some sort of solid confirmation on whether she's dropped out or not, and her share price will either crash again or skyrocket.

[Mr. Morden]

From the Politico:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's an updated story from the AP:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

And here's the latest from the Politico:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0109/NYPost_Caroline_withdraws.html

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The same blog post says, for whatever it's worth, "News vans were converging on Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand's home, according to an aide."

Meanwhile, Intrade isn't buying that Kennedy is still in it.  She's back down to 7.5

[Mr. Morden]

A sign of the confusion:

link

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Meanwhile, Kennedy back up to 17.0 on Intrade, and gaining.  Anyone who bought when she was down to 3.6 could make a killing.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, now it looks like she's back out again.  She's made a public statement saying that she's out:

link

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Intrade:

Cuomo 61.0
Maloney 24.0
Suozzi 5.0
Kennedy 4.9

[Mr. Morden]

Was this already mentioned here?:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17790.html

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[Mr. Morden]

The pick should occur tomorrow due to the Sabbath I hear.

Yeah, I already posted that:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17790.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Intrade is still unusually bullish on Cuomo:

Gillibrand 50.0
Cuomo 40.0
Maloney 7.0

So, if anyone wants to make a quick buck, there's an opportunity for you.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, there's been talk that Caroline might be appointed ambassador to the UK:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5570068.ece

[Mr. Morden]

Johnny, where did you get that link btw?

Don't know where he got it, but it shows up if you search Google News for "Gillibrand".  I don't see any other news organizations picking it up yet.

Intrade:

Gillibrand 63.9
Cuomo 33.5
Maloney 9.0

[Mr. Morden]

Politico confirms that Paterson is holding a news conference with the NY congressional delegation at noon tomorrow, "where it's expected he'll name Clinton's successor", but they don't say that it's definitely Gillibrand:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0109/Paterson_summons_NY_delegation_.html