If Palin wants it, and she does, who could stop her from the Iowa Caucus in '12?

[Mr. Morden]

Insert standard "Mr. Morden is skeptical of Jindal giving up on the Louisiana governorship after just one term in order to run for president......he would have to skip reelection in Nov. 2011 if he wants to run in the 2012 primaries" post here.

[Mr. Morden]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

Reagan and Dole (Dole's case is complicated, because he was put on the ticket in '76, but didn't get the nomination until 1996, following his being the runner up in '88)......4 of the last 5 GOP nominees (Reagan, GHW Bush, Dole, and McCain) got the GOP nomination after having been the runner up in the previous competitive GOP nomination cycle, regardless of whether they were on the ticket before.  Yeah, it wasn't really a fait accompli in each of those cases that each of those guys would win, but that's a heck of a trend.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think winning Iowa holds as much weight as it once did.  Look at Huckabee. 

With all the information available nowadays (wikipedia, blogs, PAC websites, drudge, 24/7 news networks, etc.) people have a better understanding of who the candidates are and what they're about regardless of who gets the first headline to kickoff the primary season.  And rightfully so.

Iowa by itself has never been everything (look at the GOP contests in 1980 and 1988 for example), but the early primaries collectively are still plenty important.  Do you really think McCain would have won the GOP nomination if he'd lost New Hampshire and South Carolina?  Since the modern primary system started, no GOP candidate has ever won the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire.