If Hillary comes in third in Iowa, is she finished?

[Mr. Morden]

It depends on the margin of victory/loss and what the expectations are going into Iowa.  In 2004, Dean and Gephardt were leading every poll in Iowa right up until about two or three weeks before the vote.  Going into election day, there were still people who thought Dean or Gephardt might win it.  The fact that they then got 3rd and 4th place with such a huge margin between 2nd and 3rd place was seen as a sign that their campaigns were collapsing.  If there are similar expectations for HRC as there were for Dean, and she ends up 20 points behind the first place finisher in IA, it would destroy her campaign.  But if the expectations are set right, it wouldn't.

[Mr. Morden]

Um, that she's in third in Iowa and quite a bit behind in NH?

Clinton is behind in NH?

[Mr. Morden]

She would sustain enough momentum to make it to the big primary day and thus still manage to out spend everyone else and take the majority of the delegates.

What makes you think she'll be able to outspend everyone else?  The only reason she has more $ than Obama currently is because of the $10 million she was able to transfer from her Senate campaign, but that's a one time deal.  Obama is raising $ faster than she is, and could overtake her in cash on hand within a few months.