Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Mr. Morden]

One thing you might want to change in your list is change FL16 to "open".  I know the incumbent's name is on the ballot, but effectively the seat is open.

It's also interesting how many of the Democrats' top targets in the South and West are in open seats, as compared to the Midwest and Northeast, where the targets are more likely to be incumbents.  9 of the top 10 most vulnerable GOP incumbents on your list are in either the Midwest or Northeast.  Taylor is the one exception.