As you may recall, there was a period back in the spring/summer of 1992, when Perot was actually *leading* in national polls against both Bush and Clinton. I was just wondering if anyone had any archives of state polls from that period, that showed what states Perot was leading in. Were they the same states that he ended up doing best in in the actual election or not?
In theory, this sort of information should be out there in cyberspace, but it's rather hard to come by. A little googling, and I was able to find
this NYT story from May 15, 1992:
"In a three-way race, 37 percent of Californians surveyed said they would vote for Mr. Perot, the Texas billionaire, followed by 31 percent for Mr. Bush and 25 percent for Mr. Clinton, the poll reported. Seven percent were undecided."
and this from May 12, 1992:
http://www.annapolisinstitute.net/archives/commentary/pb1992107.html"Respected polls show Perot running first or second from Louisiana to California. The mid-April Texas poll shows Perot 35%, Bush 30%, and Clinton 20%. Recent polls show Perot in first place in New Mexico (with 31%) and Colorado where Perot (35%) leads Bush (30%) and Clinton (16%). According to respected political analyst Kevin Phillips, surveys in California, Louisiana and Arizona show Perot in second place. Perot's base is clearly surging in the sunbelt, a Republican stronghold in Presidential elections."
Does anyone have any other state polls from that time period?
I wonder, if Perot had somehow managed to stay above 30% in the polls (and not dropped out and gotten back in), what the electoral map would have ultimately looked like. But I guess that particular question would be for the "what if" forum.
