Seven Letter Insights: 66% of GOP voters support Trump running for president in 2024

[Mr. Morden]

Update: I don’t know why this pollster isn’t publishing full crosstabs in their release, but they have released the correct figure to their Twitter. The 66%/71% shares are for those who would support him running; when it comes to actually giving their first primary choice, the larger pool of Republicans and independents indicate they’d vote this way in a 2024 primary:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1330908849562394625

So, among Republicans, it’s:

Trump 35%
Pence 19%
Trump Jr. 11%
Haley 7%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 4%
Ivanka Trump 2%
Tim Scott 2%
Carlson 2%
Sasse 1%
Cotton 1%
Hawley 1%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Democrats:
Biden 87/11% for +76%
Harris 85/12% for +73%
Sanders 72/22% for +50%
Warren 68/19% for +49%
Cuomo 68/19% for +49%
Ocasio-Cortez 56/26% for +30%

fav/unfav % among Republicans:
Pence 86/12% for +74%
Trump 78/20% for +58%
Cruz 68/20% for +48%
Rubo 61/24% for +37%
Cotton 36/16% for +20%
Sasse 23/20% for +3%

[Mr. Morden]

Trump only has 35%, but anyone who's supporting Don Jr. or Ivanka have their second choice as Trump. People named Trump have 48% and his VP has 19%. I doubt him and Pence would run concurrently. Bottom line, if Trump runs, he'll be so insurmountably ahead as to discourage anyone serious from running against him.

If someone accuses him of being an incompetent loser because of what happened in 2020, maybe they could win over some of Trump’s toxic masculine base who care too much about being “alpha”, and they think that you’re not alpha if you lose

That could work, but the majority of die-hard Trump supporters believe he won the recent election. And he still is the only Republican to win the presidency recently.

If you lie, but sound really confident in what you’re saying, then the average GOP voter will likely believe you. Anyone who wants to become the GOP nominee just needs to boldly and confidently tear Trump a new one.

Is there really a Republican nominee that can out macho Donald Trump?

Why not?  Trump's lack of masculinity has in fact gotten a bit of press coverage over the years:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/donald-trump-the-most-unmanly-president/612031/

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-feminine-speaking-style-214391