COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron (user search)
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  COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron (search mode)
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 559496 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2022, 03:44:24 PM »

Assuming this is accurate, it looks like the number of excess deaths in the US is now ~zero.  In fact, there were slightly more deaths per week at this point in 2018 and 2019 then there are now:


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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #26 on: July 11, 2022, 12:24:33 AM »

Glad to know that 320 people a day is "nobody." That's still significantly higher than, say, the flu (~90ish a day, averaged out over the year) and car accident deaths (~100 a day).

It is of course possible for Covid to be killing people, and yet for "excess deaths" to be zero.  That's because, regardless of cause of death, everyone who dies from Cause A, had they not been killed by Cause A, would have eventually died from one of Cause B, C, D, E, etc.  And so, it's a matter of timing.  You could have a situation where Covid is preferentially killing people who would otherwise be soon to die of something else.  Or you could have a situation where a large fraction of those who would have otherwise died this year from some other cause ended up getting killed by Covid in 2020 or 2021.

By some combination of those effects, you could in fact have fewer total people dying in July 2022 than in (pre-Covid) July 2019, and yet Covid still being a top 5 cause of death in July 2022 that was non-existent in July 2019.
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