Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 44,066
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« on: August 10, 2020, 01:18:49 PM » |
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« edited: August 10, 2020, 05:38:07 PM by Mr. Morden »
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If you had to give betting odds for the 2024 D. nomination right now, before we even know who the 2020 VP nominee is, what odds would you give for each of the most likely possibilities? (One assumes these odds are heavily correlated with your presumed odds for who Biden will pick for VP this week.)
Some possible scenarios we might end up with are....
1) Trump wins this November, in which case Biden's running mate might still end up as the 2024 nominee, though presumably not as likely as if she was the incumbent VP.
2) Biden wins this November and runs for a 2nd term. (Presumably then winning renomination.)
3) Biden wins this November, serves a full term, but opts not to run for a 2nd term. (His VP is probably the heavy favorite for the nomination in most cases, though maybe it's not totally clear if a newbie to electoral politics like Susan Rice is interested in running in this case.)
4) Biden wins this November, but doesn't serve a full term, due to death or resignation. His VP becomes president and is able to run as the incumbent. So similar to Scenario 3, but presumably with less chance of there being a significant challenger.
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