Who will be President on this day in 2030?

[Mr. Morden]

To state the obvious, there are two scenarios:

1) The person elected president in 2028 (who would thus still be president in 2030, barring death, resignation, or impeachment) is someone being elected to the office for the first time.

2) The person elected president in 2028 (who, again, would thus still be president in 2030, barring death, resignation, or impeachment) is someone who was running as the incumbent president in 2028, meaning that they most likely were first elected in 2024.

I don't know that either of those scenarios is particularly more likely than the other.  But for #1, the identity of the person is more unpredictable, because we have to speculate over who might be in the mix for an open nomination contest 8 years from now.  There are just way too many people who it might be.

So then if we're talking *most likely*, it's really #2 that dominates the probability: Who might first be elected in 2024 and then reelected in 2028.  At this point, gotta go with Kamala Harris, since I think she's the odds on favorite to be Biden's veep, setting her up for 2024.  Not that she would necessarily win in 2024, and then win reelection in 2028, but it's more likely than any other individual.  Could also be a Republican, but there are too many possibilities on that side.  Pence is presumably the 2024 GOP frontrunner, but it's pretty wide open.