The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

There's a summer meeting of CPAC happening now, smaller in scale than the winter meeting, but Noem spoke earlier today, and Rick Scott is about to speak imminently, while Trump is speaking later.

Sounds like there will in fact be a straw poll from that meeting released later today:

https://texasnewstoday.com/trumps-speech-cpac-vote-and-2024-republican-presidential-election-in-the-limelight-on-sunday/356470/

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo dodges again on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/562598-pompeo-on-2024-run-i-want-to-continue-to-have-an-impact?rl=1

“It’s literally the case that only the Lord knows what’s gonna happen,” Pompeo said on "The Carlos Watson Show" in an interview airing this fall when asked about any plans for the 2024 race.

"I’m working hard to be impactful the same way I talked about thinking about running for Congress. I want to continue to have an impact on the things that I care about, both here and abroad," he added to Watson, co-founder and CEO of OZY.

[Mr. Morden]

He used a similar formulation with the Des Moines Register:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2021/07/16/mike-pompeo-twitter-iowa-family-leadership-summit-2024-candidate-caucuses-elect-republicans-2022/7994319002/

"We are helping folks run in 2022. That’s as far as we’re looking," Pompeo said in a phone interview with the Des Moines Register. "This fight is going to go on. It will go on past 2022, but what will happen, what my role will be in that, only the Lord knows."

Pompeo also tried to claim that he’s visiting Iowa because of his wife’s family roots there, but the he “doesn’t know” why other prospective 2024 candidates are doing so:

“My wife Susan was born in Iowa City, but she was raised in Wichita. She spent her summers at Coralville and Strawberry Point,” he said. “So that's why I'm back, I don't know why some of these other folks coming back now. I can't figure it out.”

Like Pompeo, Noem was also at the Family Leadership Summit in Iowa, where she said of Trump “I’m counting on him running.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/noem-says-shes-counting-on-trump-running-again-in-2024

The conservative governor and strong Trump ally told Fox News on Friday that the former president "had America right where we needed her. His policies were right. So I’m counting on him running."

On the question of why she’s making Iowa visits if not to prep for 2024, Noem said this:

"It’s my neighboring state. I’m here all the time. I was just here earlier this week," she said. And pointing to Iowa’s GOP governor, Noem said "Kim Reynolds asked me to come to this conference and I said absolutely, I’ll do anything for Kim."

[Mr. Morden]

Newsmax says that Trump is hinting that the only reason he hasn’t already announced his intention to run for prez again is because of campaign finance rules:

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/campaign-2024-presidential-run/2021/07/20/id/1029338/

While all signs are pointing to him getting back to a 2024 presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump said "antiquated" campaign finance regulations preclude him from making an official announcement.

"I can't really because of campaign finance rules, regulations," Trump told Tuesday's "The Michael Savage Show." "It's very complicated, very stiff, and frankly very antiquated, if you want to know the truth.

"It's ridiculous. It's actually ridiculous."

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz is headed to Iowa in August:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/21/ted-cruz-ashley-hinson-bbq-bash-fundraiser-iowa-caucus-republican-congress-election-gop-kim-reynolds/8026999002/

Iowa's 2016 Republican caucus winner, U.S. Sen Ted Cruz of Texas, is returning to the state next month to help raise money for 1st District U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Marion.
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The fundraiser, "Ashley's BBQ Bash," is scheduled for Aug. 28 at the Linn County Fairgrounds. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel also will be in attendance.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/AndyKroll/status/1417146290870358025

More from that report here:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-is-telling-dinner-guests-he-will-definitely-run-in-2024-despite-public-coyness-report-says/ar-AAMkCdA

"I have three friends who've had dinner with him in the last couple of months. All three reported that his current plans are to run for president in 2024," the official said. "Now, whether he does or not is a different issue. We've still got three years to go. But he's telling people that."

The official claims that the first two dinners took place in late spring, and the third occurred sometime within the last two weeks.

The individual who dined with Mr Trump at the third dinner reportedly said that they were "not 100 per cent sure Trump wants to run but he likes being in the conversation, he wants to freeze the field, and he wants his name out there."

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo headed to NH in August:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1417541807039258628

[Mr. Morden]

Noem headed to South Carolina:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/564485-noem-to-travel-to-south-carolina-for-early-voting-event?rl=1

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) is slated to travel to South Carolina for an early voting event in August as speculation swirls around whether she will launch a 2024 presidential bid.

Noem will attend the “Faith & Freedom BBQ," which is hosted by Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), on Aug. 23. The event, which Duncan touted as the largest annual gathering of Republicans in the state, has hosted other big GOP names including former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott deflects on whether he’s going to run for prez in 2024, though says “I want a job when I leave the Senate”:

https://www.rawstory.com/tim-scott-2024/

During an interview on Fox News Sunday, host Martha MacCallum asked Scott if he had plans to run for president in 2024.

"Here's what I believe," Scott replied. "I believe that the American people would really appreciate politicians not being lifetime public servants. God bless the wonderful option that I've been given and blessing to serve the people of South Carolina."

"But I had a job before I went into the Senate and I want a job when I leave the Senate," he added. "So I believe in term limits for all elected officials. And that's one of the reasons I've committed myself to making this my last term in the Senate."

Scott concluded: "And I'm excited to serve the great people of South Carolina any way they will allow me."

[Mr. Morden]

It happened with Trump and it will happen again with Greene if she succeeds.

It definitely did *not* happen with Trump.  Are you kidding me?  A substantial number of Republicans on the forum in 2016 didn't support him either in the primary or the GE.  Though of course, this forum is very atypical of the wider electorate.  What you're saying is more typical of Republicans generally than it is of Republicans here.

[Mr. Morden]

This story is mainly about the role of Rep. Feenstra in introducing prospective 2024 GOP candidates to Iowa, but also mentions that Tom Cotton will make a return trip to the state later this month:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/06/randy-feenstra-iowa-caucus-gop-502304

[Mr. Morden]

Haley dodges on 2024, says she has “until the first part of 2023” to decide what to do:

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article253316153.html

She said she is campaigning across the country to help House members, senators and governors get good people elected.

“That’s the big thing I’m focused on, and I don’t think I have to focus on my next step until the first part of 2023, so I think I’ve got some time to think about it,” Haley said.

[Mr. Morden]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Ben Carson got more than 1% in Iowa, let alone nationally.

In fact, Ben Carson got 9.3% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, so I think Scott would do just fine in Iowa if Trump for some reason wasn't running.

Also, Alan Keyes got 14% in Iowa in 2000.

[Mr. Morden]

The latest from Trumpworld on 2024:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-world-sees-building-wave-185500207.html

His friends describe the president as eager to entertain another campaign, though it is not a lock and depends on how the 2022 midterm election goes.
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Others said Trump has recently lost some weight, feels good, and is engaged in current issues. He is especially watchful of President Joe Biden’s efforts to tear down his legacy and spoil policies the Republican Party believes were winners, such as immigration.

“He’s getting stronger and stronger as each day passes,” an associate said. “The enthusiasm is not dwindling at all, it’s amazing.”

In other news, John Bolton will be doing an event in South Carolina on Oct. 1st:

https://www.fitsnews.com/2021/08/11/john-bolton-is-coming-to-south-carolina/

[Mr. Morden]

Trump hiring Iowa staff:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/12/trump-pac-iowa-2024-504294

Donald Trump’s Save America PAC has hired two political operatives from Iowa, a sign the former president hasn’t closed the door on a 2024 run for the White House.

Eric Branstad and Alexander Latcham were hired with a “broad political portfolio focused on advancing Save America’s goals of electing strong, Pro-Trump, America First conservatives,” a Save America spokesperson told POLITICO. The news was first reported by Bloomberg.

Latcham, who worked in the Trump White House in political affairs, moved back to Iowa — the state that typically kicks off the race for the White House — earlier this year. Branstad also lives in Iowa and served as Trump’s Iowa state director. He later worked in the Commerce Department.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton was in the early caucus state of Nevada this past weekend:

https://news.yahoo.com/cotton-2022-efforts-set-table-144702689.html

While there, he was asked about 2024:

On Saturday, Cotton demurred when asked twice by Fox News about 2024.

He emphasized that the 2022 midterms are "the election that's in my eye sights" and he added that "we'll let future elections work themselves out."

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo:

https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/16/mike-pompeo-visits-oil-producers-fundraisers-conservative-pac-kansas-2022-elections-trump-abortion/8107713002/

Pompeo, a close ally of former President Donald Trump, has been speaking and fundraising in Kansas in recent days. On Monday, he was the keynote luncheon speaker at the Kansas Independent Oil & Gas Association annual convention.

“CAVPAC [Pompeo’s PAC] is designed to give me the capacity to go out and help candidates win in 2022, and that’s my political future,” Pompeo told reporters after his speech. “I’m going to go and help these folks win. And then the Lord knows what will happen after that.” 
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Federal Election Commission reports show the Pompeo for Kansas candidate committee had more than $1 million at the start of the calendar year. By June 30, the amount had dipped to about $845,000 — primarily due to a $150,000 transfer and $5,000 contribution to Champion American Values.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hints-2024-presidential-run-people-very-happy-1620893

Towards the end of the Newsmax interview, Kelly asked Trump about the 2024 election.

"As we say goodnight, sir, thoughts on 2024 and you. What are you thinking right now?" Kelly asked.

Trump replied: "So, look, I love this country. I hate what's happening to it. I hate it."

"And we're not gonna have a country anymore if it keeps going like this week," he said. "We're a laughing stock all over the world and I think a lot of people are going to be very happy."

Trump has used similar phrasing regarding a potential 2024 run in the past. In May, he appeared by phone on Candace Owen's show for the Daily Wire and said: "I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement."

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1428423514089037826

I really hope she's just there for the food.

She did an event there with Matt Gaetz yesterday:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/19/reps-marjorie-taylor-greene-mtg-matt-gaetz-hold-america-first-rally-des-moines-iowa-donald-trump/5539728001/

[Mr. Morden]

The Republican Jewish Coalition will hold its annual event in Las Vegas, NV in November, and Pence, Pompeo, Haley, and DeSantis will all be speaking there:

https://jewishinsider.com/2021/08/republican-jewish-coalition-presidential-hopefuls/

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott’s in NH this weekend:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-42050703

[Mr. Morden]

A story here about the GOP race in Iowa:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/donald-trump-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-in-2024.html

“Tom Cotton will literally come for any event you want him to,” one Republican said. Cotton was particularly praised for his efforts on the ground, with one operative noting that “he’s building personal relationships not just in Iowa but elsewhere.” The question is whether the somber Arkansan described as “boring” by one operative would resonate with Republican voters after a half-decade of the Trump show. By contrast, Pompeo has been praised for his ability to connect with both MAGA and Establishment voters and for showing up in Iowa repeatedly.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is doing several events in Iowa both today and tomorrow:

https://iowatorch.com/2021/08/24/marco-rubio-headline-two-republican-events-in-iowa/

[Mr. Morden]

Trump planning a trip to Iowa:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/30/trump-to-head-to-iowa-with-an-eye-on-2024-507656

Former President Donald Trump plans to hold a rally in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa as he continues to tease a third run for the White House.

Details for Trump’s trip are still being worked out, but it comes on the heels of visits to the state by other high profile Republicans also eyeing a run for president. This summer, a steady parade of top GOPers have held fundraisers and political events in Iowa in an effort to support the party but also rub elbows with GOP leadership who will prove instrumental in the early presidential caucus state.

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan, Pence, Pompeo, Haley, Cotton, and Tim Scott will all be speaking at the Reagan Library as part of a speaking series called “Time for Choosing”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-pence-ryan-haley-scott-cotton-reagan-library-speeches-gop-future

Looks like they're going to get Christie for this as well:

https://reagan40.secure.force.com/events/cnp_paas_evt__ExternalRegistrationPage?Site_Id=a2E1Q000003KFz7UAG