Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders' base went to Clinton 91-9, which is the best retention rate since 2000.

Seriously, Ive made this same comment about 3 times on this thread. Its simply not true.

I'm assuming from the 100% total there that the 91%-9% figure is between Clinton and Trump only and does not include Stein, Johnson, write-in votes, and abstentions.

You are right, found the Stein/Johnson numbers

If we are to talk about abstentions, the percentage is 4%. So, out of the 100% of Sanders voters, 4% stayed home, 12% voted for Trump, 78% voted for Clinton, and 6% for a 3rd party.

 This puts Sanders voters below 2012 GOP voters, but above GOP 2016, 2008, 2000, and DEM 2008, 2004, and 2000.

So, still not really that much.

Wait, how did you go from 91%/9% to 78% Clinton / 12% Trump / 10% 3rd party or didn't vote?  What does the 91/9 represent?

Also, a later tweet in that thread:

https://twitter.com/aaron_strauss/status/900361632747896834

shows that 78% is lower than the comparable number for GOP 2008.  I don't know how it compares to the others without tracking down whatever original source this guy was quoting.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2019/01/25/report-bernie-sanders-to-announce-2020-presidential-run-imminently

So that "imminency" lasts for a one week and a half now.

So perhaps there is still hope that he doesn’t run

As far as I know, the Yahoo News story linked in the OP is the only original reporting saying that Sanders has decided to run and his announcement is imminent.  Other news outlets linked to it, but none of them independently confirmed it.  Again, AFAIK.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Bernie's odds of dying before 2024 aren't that high especially as he's in good health.

I don't think him dying in office should be a concern.  If he dies, then the VP takes over, so not really a problem.  The problem is more if he (or Biden, or any other similarly old candidate) experiences significant physical and/or mental decline while in office, and is no longer to operate in the job at 100%.  Ideally, we'd get some kind of guarantee before they're sworn in that they'd resign if that were to happen, though I'm not sure if there's a good way to do that.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-campaign-bernie-sanders-strategists-7556f833-817a-40e5-9625-b5e67a58f1dd.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders to do a town hall event on Fox News Channel on April 15th:

https://apnews.com/5293e120a4904736b2a51d01cdbb08f8

Fox News Channel says Bernie Sanders will appear on the network for a town hall event on April 15, the first Democrat to venture onto Fox for this type of an event in the current presidential campaign cycle.

Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum will co-anchor the town hall, which will be held in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. It will focus on the economy and jobs.

[Mr. Morden]

A year ago, weren't you saying that Harris and Gabbard were the only candidates with a chance of winning?

[Mr. Morden]

Why was this unstickied ?

Either unsticky all of them, or keep this one stickied.

I'm in favor of unsticking all of them, tbh.  We managed to get by just fine in past presidential primary cycles without five different candidate-specific threads stickied.

[Mr. Morden]

I've noticed that Sanders seem to be doing about as well with white as non-white voters in national polls this time around. But he still seems to be polling pretty poorly in say South Carolina and I'm not seeing much evidence he's doing well with black voters. Does this mean he made inroads with Hispanic voters? Or is it more that his support has gone down more with white voters compared to in the past.

He just doesn't do that well in the south. He does better with northern blacks.

This is probably a function of education. Sanders does better with college educated people among all demographics.

That's not what the current polling says.  E.g.:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320701.msg6812137#msg6812137

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1141397029891039240?s=21

That doesn't make any sense given the wording of his tweet and the tweet he was responding to.  "They know our progressive agenda....is the real threat to the billionaire class".  How does it make sense that when he tweets that in response to a tweet about centrists backing Warren instead of him, that he's not implying that Warren's agenda doesn't threaten the rich in the same way?  If it did, then why are they supporting (or open to supporting) Warren while they won't back Sanders?