The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a recap of Inslee's Nevada appearance today, with a quote from him about his 2020 decision:

https://bangordailynews.com/2019/01/12/national-politics/democratic-governors-mayors-could-crowd-2020-presidential-primaries/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Historically, sitting governors are often among the last of the presidential candidates to formally declare their candidacy (just look at the 2016 election cycle timeline).  FHQ's timeline of state legislative sessions:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2019/01/invisibleprimary-visible-primary.html

shows that Washington's legislative session this year ends on April 28th, while Montana's ends on May 1st.  You might expect Inslee and Bullock to then wait until May to start their presidential campaigns, but it looks like Inslee at least isn't going to wait that long.

[Mr. Morden]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

This is a misleading recap if you read the Axios story that this is based on:

https://www.axios.com/1-election-thing-joe-biden-is-running-most-days-1547307957-62bbf645-69e3-4df5-bad3-1f8da28670f2.html

That story starts out by saying that Biden has told some people he's running, but then ends with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it sounds like more of a muddle, with no clear conclusion as to whether he's really decided or not.

[Mr. Morden]

Brown:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/11/sherrod-brown-trump-slayer-heres-his-big-idea/?utm_term=.d927aea83e3e

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is in (not that anyone expected different)

"In A Private Meeting, Kirsten Gillibrand Signals She Will Run For President"

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/gillibrand-private-meeting-women-2020-president

Quote from that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Possibly in January."  My guess is she announces it much earlier than the end of January.  Probably within the next week, IMHO, based on the news coming out of Team Gillibrand these last few days.  I mean, she's apparently made these hires for her proto-presidential campaign, and even rented office space.  Plus according to this story, she's (privately) telling groups of people outsider her immediate orbit that she's decided to run.

This looks like someone who's going to announce something in just a few days.  It would make sense for her to announce her exploratory committee before she goes on that trip to Iowa (which she's reportedly going to make next weekend.)

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio declines to rule out a run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/13/de-blasio-new-york-mayor-progressives-1098725

You must be logged in to read this quote.

On a different note….

Merkley says he expects to make a decision on 2020 by March:

http://kbnd.com/kbnd-news/local-news-feed/418029

I’m not sure if this is from the same interview, but it looks like he made these comments in the same week:

https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-jeff-merkley-presidential-run-doubts/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don’t know, I think whenever a prospective candidate starts talking about the huge cost of mounting a campaign, I read it as a sign that they’re probably leaning towards no.  That plus the fact that the effort to allow him to run for prez and Senate simultaneously went nowhere in the Oregon legislature leads me to think that Merkley is probably leaning against a run at the moment.  But I guess we’ll find out within the next couple of months.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris continued her book tour in Los Angeles today, but the crazy part is, her event was moderated by Cory Booker's ex-girlfriend, Cleo Wade:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-kamala-harris-book-events-20190113-story.html

(Though, is Cleo really his ex-girlfriend, or are they back on?  They were apparently pretty close last month: https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2018/12/13/sen-cory-booker-poet-cleo-wade-talk-self-care-sage-fire-alarms )

[Mr. Morden]

New AP story on the 2020 race here:

http://www.startribune.com/2020-democratic-primary-set-to-intensify/504306232/

A few tidbits:

-Booker's campaign HQ will be in Newark.
-Booker, Gillibrand, and Harris announcements all thought to be fairly imminent ("in the coming weeks").
-Neither O'Rourke nor Sanders plan to announce anything until February at the earliest.
-Hickenlooper, despite doing some hiring and organization, reportedly won't launch until March.
-Unlike the others, Biden isn't currently doing anything to build his team.  He's still in the stage of "huddling with aides while he moves closer to a decision":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

News on Biden.

Via Joe

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's just a re-reporting of the Axios story linked here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6622887#msg6622887

Which again, is a bit of a muddle, because it sounds authoritatively like he's leaning in towards a run, but then ends with "We're told authoritatively that Biden hasn't decided."

[Mr. Morden]

Booker and Gillibrand are both apparently losing weight to prepare for their campaigns:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/nyregion/cory-booker-gillibrand-weight-loss-2020.html

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jmsummers/status/1084913196195086338

I already mentioned this in the other thread, but she’s reportedly going to announce on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert tomorrow (Tuesday) night:

https://theweek.com/speedreads/817666/sen-kirsten-gillibrand-reportedly-announce-2020-run-colbert-week

In other news, de Blasio elaborates on his opening of the door to a presidential run:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2019/01/14/de-blasio-says-changing-world-is-why-he-is-not-ruling-out-a-2020-presidential-run

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich joins CNN as a political commentator:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/media/john-kasich-cnn-contributor/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Brown will go on a tour of all four early primary states:

https://www.cleveland.com/politics/2019/01/sherrod-brown-is-going-on-tour-to-the-first-four-early-presidential-states.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

With the pace of news picking up, stuff is slipping through the cracks.  This story from last week slipped my attention, but here it is:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/11/wall-street-hears-from-democratic-governors-considering-2020-runs.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meanwhile, there’s a long Buttigieg profile here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/magazine/wp/2019/01/14/feature/could-pete-buttigieg-become-the-first-millennial-president/?utm_term=.919a5ffa68fa

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar’s family on board with a run:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/2020-roundup-klobuchar-inching-closer-bid-n958826

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A followup on Brown’s road trip: He clarifies here that his ultimate decision on a run won’t happen until March:

https://www.npr.org/2019/01/16/676604096/ohio-sen-sherrod-brown-moves-closer-to-launching-2020-campaign

We now have quite a few candidates with a “March” decision timeframe (sometimes framed as “by the end of the first quarter”): Brown, Garcetti, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe, and Merkley are all giving this timeframe.  Maybe some/most will announce at the very end of the month to try to maximize their 2nd quarter fundraising number (which is what Warren did for the 1st quarter).

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton headed to New Hampshire on Feb. 2nd:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/01/16/rep-moulton-speak-restarting-buzz-may-run-for-president/1Q7hZFR33aZ1ttXVFMQfJN/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton headed to New Hampshire on Feb. 2nd:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/01/16/rep-moulton-speak-restarting-buzz-may-run-for-president/1Q7hZFR33aZ1ttXVFMQfJN/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Update on this:

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2019/01/16/seth-moulton-2020-presidential-election/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Booker and others doing early primary state talent recruiting:

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/article224616140.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

O’Rourke is “not yet assembling a campaign team”, and yet his advisers are plotting his hypothetical campaign:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/16/orourke-advisers-2020-plans-1105967

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The story also repeats what Politico also reported last week: That four people who have spoken to O'Rourke or his advisers say he’s leaning towards running.

Finally, Bullock’s in no rush to announce, and may well wait until after the Montana legislative session ends at the end of April:

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Montana-s-Bullock-in-no-rush-to-announce-plans-13538990.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1085959704860377090

[Mr. Morden]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who?

This guy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6619381#msg6619381

[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe's been using his PAC to donate $ to Dems in Iowa and New Hampshire:

http://www.therepublic.com/2019/01/17/us-election-2020-mcauliffe/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Casey says he won't run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/425991-bob-casey-says-he-will-not-run-for-president-in-2020

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican news roundup….

Hogan headed to Iowa in March:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/18/larry-hogan-donald-trump-2020-election-1110535

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also of note on Hogan: he invited Bill Kristol to his inauguration.  Kristol, as noted here before, has a Super PAC that’s raising $ to support whoever ends up primarying Trump.

Corker on a 2020 presidential run: “It’s a possitibility”, but not at the front of his mind:

https://www.nashvillepublicradio.org/post/tri-star-state-corker-blames-trump-shutdown#stream/0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Finally, Kasich will be on Real Time tonight:

https://twitter.com/RealTimers/status/1085332775798882304

[Mr. Morden]

As noted here before, Buttigieg's book comes out on Feb. 12th, and the most recent reporting suggested he might not launch an exploratory committee until his book tour was over.  But in this interview, he suggests he might end up acting earlier than that, possibly this month:

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/politics/police-tapes-pence-immigration-raid-rumor-what-we-learned-from/article_3d871e0c-1dfe-5339-8f18-eea5a90a4560.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

As noted here before, Buttigieg's book comes out on Feb. 12th, and the most recent reporting suggested he might not launch an exploratory committee until his book tour was over.  But in this interview, he suggests he might end up acting earlier than that, possibly this month:

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/politics/police-tapes-pence-immigration-raid-rumor-what-we-learned-from/article_3d871e0c-1dfe-5339-8f18-eea5a90a4560.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This Buttigieg thing is so weird, what makes him more notable than the hundred other small town Mayors out there? Why does he get more attention than say Levar Stoney or Muriel Bowser?

He's running for president*, and they're not.  If these other mayors suggested that they might run for president, the media would cover them too.

* Not officially running for president yet, but he's been dropping hints for a long time now.