You mean conditional on them running in the first place or not? E.g., *if* Joe Biden runs, he has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency, but if I was betting on "winning individual", then I might not include him in the top 7, just because I don't think he's as likely to run as some of the others. So would I vote for him in this poll or not?
But what I’m saying is, I’m unclear on what question is even being asked. There are two different numbers for each candidate:
-What is the probability that this candidate will run?
-*If* they were to run, what would be the probability that they would win?
And then there’s a third number, which is the overall probability that they’ll be elected. That third number is the product of the first two numbers, since in order to be elected, you first have to run. So I might think someone would have a great chance of being elected if they run, say 60%. So if we were doing “power rankings”—how strong is this candidate? They’d easily be in my top 7. However, if I think that this person is very unlikely to run…say, 1% chance of running….then their probability of being elected is only 0.01*0.60 = 0.6%. And so then, no, they’re not in my top 7 on “winning individual” in gambling-speak. So that’s why I’m wondering if the question being asked here is “power rankings” or “winning individual”.
Poll
