WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 (user search)
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  WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10  (Read 13371 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« on: March 31, 2016, 07:52:00 AM »

Maxwell, who was the last republican that won an election?

George W. Bush, the establishments choice, who ran as a certifiable Rockefeller Republican, according to Limbaugh, for as long as he could in the 2000 Presidential Election until it was realized his main opponent for the nomination was John McCain. His general election campaign was fairly moderate by modern Republican standards as well. In 2004 he shifted right but even then he had massive leverage and he obviously wasn't any of the names I mentioned.

Plus, don't you conservatives recoil at his memory at this point?

Yes, Bush was a "conservative who ran as a moderate".  That is, the Republican base believed that he was one of them (in part because of the primary campaign against McCain, but also for reasons of cultural identification).  And so, since he had the base in his pocket, Bush was free to spend the general election campaign talking about things like education, a Medicare prescription drug benefit, etc.  It was a campaign that allowed him to reach out to the center.  Contrast that with McCain and Romney, who in subsequent contests had the image of a "moderate", and so had to be "moderates who ran as conservatives".  That is, they had to spend way too much time sucking up to the conservative base, because the conservative base didn't believe they were really conservative.

A "conservative who runs as a moderate" seems like the smarter way to go, assuming you can find someone who can pull it off.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2016, 08:48:53 AM »

I don't see how Kasich gets on with just Ohio. There have been plenty of Favored sons in the past and Kasich is no different.

If there's a Trump collapse in the NE - but I just don't see a path where he stays on the ballot if it goes past a first ballot.

2008 was very strange, with Huckabee getting 8 states, Romney 11. Only time in history the nominee had two candidates with that many states, and the only time the eventual winner got fewer than 50 percent of the primary votes.

There are 19 states left, Trump only has 37 percent of the vote. There's still another 7.6 million votes out there, and Trump has to get 4.2 million of those voters in order to get to 50 percent plus one.

That's 55 percent of the remaining vote.

It's getting harder and harder to see the Republicans winning the election regardless, so at this point nominating Kasich on like the 30th ballot of the convention isn't obviously worse than the other options.

Maybe the best option is to have like 30,000 ballots, and keep the convention going right through the election, with nobody getting nominated. Tongue

Hey, the Democratic Convention is just one week after the Republican one.  So a more modest goal would be to simply have enough Republican ballots to keep the convention going for a second week, in order to drown out all the coverage of the Dems.  Maybe Kasich will be nominated on the 100th ballot, just as Hillary Clinton is giving her acceptance speech.
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