Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

PRIMARIES

Polls close at 7:30pm ET

North Carolina
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nc/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/north-carolina

Ohio
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/oh/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/ohio

Polls close at 7pm ET for most of the state, but 8pm ET in some of it

Florida
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/fl/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/florida

Polls close at 8pm ET

Illinois
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/il/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/illinois

Missouri
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mo/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/missouri

[Mr. Morden]

Early exits:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/live-blog-exit-polls-tuesday-s-big-five-primaries-n538891

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Guys, the exit polls don't take into account absentee ballots & a lot of other stuff.

Not necessarily true.  In states where there are a large number of early voters / absentees, they poll those people by phone just before election day in order to incorporate them into the exit polls.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

More exits:

[Mr. Morden]

More exits:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666687

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[Mr. Morden]

First results from Florida are out....Clinton ahead:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not seeing a thing on CNN.

Use NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

[Mr. Morden]

Ohio exit poll:

whites:
Sanders 51%
Clinton 49%

blacks:
Clinton 73%
Sanders 26%

North Carolina exit poll:

whites:
Sanders 52%
Clinton 43%

blacks:
Clinton 80%
Sanders 18%

[Mr. Morden]

Missouri exit poll topline:

Sanders 51%
Clinton 47%

[Mr. Morden]

Illinois exit poll topline:

Sanders 51%
Clinton 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Florida exit poll topline:

Clinton 64%
Sanders 36%

[Mr. Morden]

Florida exit poll:
whites: Clinton +7
blacks: Clinton +56
Latinos: Clinton +38

Illinois exit poll:
whites: Sanders +20
blacks: Clinton +39
Latinos: Sanders +7

Missouri exit poll:
whites: Sanders +15
blacks: Clinton +39

[Mr. Morden]

Florida exit poll:
whites: Clinton +7
blacks: Clinton +56
Latinos: Clinton +38

Illinois exit poll:
whites: Sanders +20
blacks: Clinton +39
Latinos: Sanders +7

Missouri exit poll:
whites: Sanders +15
blacks: Clinton +39

Holy Illinois Latinos!

Only 1% of exit is Latino, I am surprised they even put out a number with a sample that small.

Look at it again.  It's 8%, not 1%.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley protest votes in the Florida panhandle:

[Mr. Morden]

Wolf Blitzer just said "North Korea" when he meant "North Carolina".

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Cohn posted this map of the South (Clinton vs. Sanders):



He notes that OK, NC, and FL all have party registration, and so the "Dixiecrats" (or whatever you want to call them) are unable to crossover and vote in the Republican primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Cohn posted this map of the South (Clinton vs. Sanders):



He notes that OK, NC, and FL all have party registration, and so the "Dixiecrats" (or whatever you want to call them) are unable to crossover and vote in the Republican primary.

Not necessarily a perfect correlation there: Louisiana has party registration, too, and the biggest D registration advantage out of all of those states to boot. Furthermore, look at the areas surrounding western NC (North GA, East TN, SW VA, etc) where there isn't party registration - Sanders came within single digits in about 20 counties in North GA and did quite well in East TN and VA, too.

Just to add to this: when you look at partisan registration figures for 2014-2015 in NC, you'll also notice that some of the stronger areas for Sanders are in some of the most ancestrally-weak areas in terms of Democratic registrations, so I'm not sure I buy this theory about closed primaries influencing the result to any substantial degree for Sanders.

Well, OK, here is a map of Democratic primary "protest votes" (those for candidates other than Clinton or Sanders):



It also shows a higher number of votes for non-Clinton/non-Sanders candidates in states with party registration.  Maybe the "Dixiecrats" vote for O'Malley or De La Fuente in some places, but Sanders in others?  I don't know.

[Mr. Morden]

Got this off Twitter...in the Chicago precincts that are majority white, higher income meant more support for Clinton.  In majority black precincts, it was reversed: