Who'll win NV and SC?

[Mr. Morden]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

[Mr. Morden]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

[Mr. Morden]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

He’s latino and has more appeal to that group than Cruz. I seriously doubt that the Trumpster will win there since he insulted Hispanics so badly. I think he’ll end up third in NV, behind Cruz and Rubio (or even behind Jeb or Kasich; depends on how they perform in SC). There have only been few polls in NV, and the caucus system is difficult to poll anyway.

Only 5% of Nevada GOP caucusgoers were Latino back in 2012, according to the entrance poll.  Sure, that's not nothing.  But it's hardly a make or break demographic.

[Mr. Morden]

So, yeah, for the Democratic caucus, you can register on caucus day.  For the Republican caucus, however, you have to register as a Republican by Feb. 13th (this coming Saturday) in order to participate:

http://www.nevadagopcaucus.org/important-dates.html

Jon Ralston has a primer on the state of play in both parties:

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/09/ralston-reports-up-next-diverse-unpredictable-nevada/80088800/

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