snapshot poll: Is Hillary 45?

[Mr. Morden]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

[Mr. Morden]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

Did you even get what I meant, I clearly said that the GOP will nominate a lunatic over sane people like Kasich or Rubio

No, I didn't get what you meant, because I don't think it was clear.  I was legit confused by your sentence, because you seem to have left out a "rather".  I take it what you meant was?:

"The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) rather than let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination."

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.

Well, I certainly agree that if you rate Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at ~100%, then she's more than 50% likely to win the general election.

But I don't think it is quite ~100%.