The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb says he's "actively exploring" but forming a leadership PAC, not an exploratory committee.

Politico says:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/jeb-bush-exploring-2016-run-113599.html?hp=t1_r

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[Mr. Morden]

Things should start to speed up, now that one of the top tier candidates is (basically) in.

To be clear, most of the other GOP candidates already have PACs, so Bush is actually late to the party on this.

[Mr. Morden]

Things should start to speed up, now that one of the top tier candidates is (basically) in.

To be clear, most of the other GOP candidates already have PACs, so Bush is actually late to the party on this.

True, but none of the other top tier candidates have been this explicit about running.  Maybe Paul, but we don't even know if he'll be able to run for President and Senate at the same time yet. 

I'm not sure in what sense Bush is being more explicit about running than the others are.  The news here is that Bush, who has made virtually no visits to the early primary states and has not had a PAC, is suddenly doing some of the laying of groundwork that Cruz, Santorum, Rubio, etc. have already been doing for the last two years.  He wasn't doing it before and now he is.  But that just means that he's catching up to where other candidates already are in their preparation.

Of course, you could argue that his supposed "frontrunner" status means that he doesn't need to do as much laying of groundwork as others do, but that's a separate issue.

[Mr. Morden]

Things should start to speed up, now that one of the top tier candidates is (basically) in.

To be clear, most of the other GOP candidates already have PACs, so Bush is actually late to the party on this.

The big thing is that he said he's actively exploring the possibility of running for President.

None of the other Republicans have had a press release like that.

Is there something special about the phrase "actively exploring"?  The other candidates have made countless comments about how they're considering a presidential run.  In some cases, phrasing things like Santorum did here about acting as if they're running.  I don't see "actively exploring" as being any more definitive than those other statements.  Again, what's different is that Bush is the quasi-frontrunner, and that he's now matching the more proactive behavior of many of the other candidates.  But I'm unclear on how this is *more* proactive than what the other candidates have done.

EDIT: Heck, Peter King even said "Right now, I'm running for president" last year.  You can't get any more proactive than that.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson to speak at a Tea Party convention in South Carolina next month:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/12/14/Dr-Ben-Carson-to-Address-South-Carolina-Tea-Party-Convention

[Mr. Morden]

Pataki, in a new interview with the New York Daily News:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/george-pataki-run-president-article-1.2046745

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[Mr. Morden]

Graham reiterates that he's thinking about running:

http://www.kentucky.com/2014/12/16/3597276/sc-gop-sen-graham-thinking-about.html

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/16/politics/rubio-on-track-for-2016-run/index.html

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Jindal was in Iowa yesterday, and is planning another trip there for next month:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/16/bobby-jindal-iowa-polk-county-gop/20515287/

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Huckabee on his 2016 intentions:

http://www.greenevillesun.com/xml/nitf/article_8d2e6ac6-e085-55b8-b49d-29e22d323d45.html

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[Mr. Morden]

I don't think Rubio cares at all about the Senate seat.  He only ran for Senate in order to use it as a stepping stone for a presidential run.  Now, it's possible that he nonetheless bows out of a presidential run this time, and goes for Senate again, to bide his time for a future run...but only if he thinks that 2020 or 2024 will be a more favorable time for him than 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson is currently doing his tour in Israel:

http://dailycaller.com/2014/12/15/here-are-some-photos-of-ben-carson-in-israel/

[Mr. Morden]

Christie says he'll discuss his presidential ambitions with his family over the holidays:

http://www.chron.com/news/article/Christie-says-he-ll-discuss-2016-with-family-over-5963806.php

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[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush is resigning from his paid role as an advisor to the British bank Barclays:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/jeb-bush-barclays-113670.html?hp=l6_4

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio reiterates that Bush running would not deter him from running himself:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/marco-rubio-insists-jeb-bush-affect-2016-timetable/story?id=27667129

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[Mr. Morden]

Santorum was already scheduled to appear at Steve King's event in Iowa on Jan. 24, but is now also making an appearance in Sioux City, IA on the 25th:

http://www.siouxlandmatters.com/story/d/story/senator-rick-santorum-confirmed-for-siouxland-rall/25059/Tr2UEcmyiU6tCDYn_IizHQ

[Mr. Morden]

Fiorina is hiring a political and comms director, launch imminent. Hopefully the retreads and jokes drop out before debates start.

The story says that her campaign is expected to launch "as early as next month".

[Mr. Morden]

Pataki says he's "strongly leaning toward" running:

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/227794-ex-new-york-gov-declare-cyber-war-on-north-korea

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In the same story, Pataki says that the US should "declare cyber war" on North Korea.

[Mr. Morden]

With the GOP race so open a lot are thinking "why not me?" hence Pataki, Fiorina, Graham, even Quayle. I suspect more. 2015 is going to be a great year for GOP political consultants, pollsters etc.

Read the source of the story about Quayle considering a bid very carefully, and tell me if you think it's reliable:

Apparently Dan Quayle is thinking of running again.

[Mr. Morden]

Numerous GOP politicos who might otherwise back Christie (nationally) or Rubio (in Florida) are committing themselves to Bush, should he run:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/jeb-bush-already-winning-over-some-supporters-christie-rubio-n273151

[Mr. Morden]

This thread has reached 2000 replies, and so is being retired.  Here's the new thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204564.0