The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, Jeb Bush and a group of investors recently made an offer to buy the Miami Marlins from current owner Jeffrey Loria, but Loria declined to sell:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57567958/report-jeb-bush-tried-to-buy-miami-marlins/

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton has some more medical tests:

http://www.13wham.com/news/local/story/Hillary-Clinton-Underwent-More-Medical-Tests/VzO1lsHFP0GCFKWoXsD74A.cspx

And National Journal zooms in on Biden's role in the White House, and how he's using it to leverage his chances in 2016:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/need-proof-that-joe-biden-is-running-for-president-look-at-his-staff-20130131

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[Mr. Morden]

Elizabeth Warren is avoiding the national media:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/elizabeth-warrens-silent-senate-approach-87636.html?hp=t3_3

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[Mr. Morden]

Ben Carson

2016's Herman Cain?

Ben Carson is a neurosurgeon and the Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital.  He's managed to generate presidential buzz among movement conservatives just by giving a speech critical of Obama in front of him at the National Prayer Breakfast last week:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-a-johns-hopkins-neurosurgeon-is-getting-2016-presidential-buzz-20130211

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Rather than try to tamp down expectations for a run, Carson is fanning the flames:

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[Mr. Morden]

Janet Napolitano

Karen Tumulty of The Washington Post recently ran an item suggesting that Napolitano might be interested in running for president in 2016:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2013/02/04/janet-napolitano-a-woman-to-watch-for-2016/

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Nothing much more here to add, as Napolitano hasn't really done anything up until now to indicate that she's interested.  But then, Cabinet secretaries can't really do that so easily.

One question worth asking though: Is America ready for a Space Biker president?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16fob-q4-t.html?_r=0

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Rahm Emanuel

The Chicago mayor may be considering a run:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/14/rahm-emanuel-toying-with-2016-presidential-run-sources-say.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Two quick hits:

Jindal

Not exactly Iowa and New Hampshire, but Jindal is doing more events for the party outside his state, this time one in Missouri:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/viewart/20130207/NEWS/130207006/Gov-Bobby-Jindal-headline-Missouri-GOP-event-again-

He also appeared in Richmond, VA to help out fellow potential 2016er Bob McDonnell in promoting his education reforms:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/viewart/20130208/NEWS0401/130208013/Gov-Bobby-Jindal-touts-education-reforms

Walker

Walker still seems like a possible candidate if Ryan doesn't run, and pundits marvel at his fundraising prowess:

http://watchdog.org/69552/walker-building-a-case-for-a-2016-presidential-run/

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[Mr. Morden]

Matt Taibbi wrote on twitter than Elizabeth Warren will be the next president.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/15/matt-taibbi-elizabeth-warren_n_2695200.html?utm_hp_ref=business

She seems to be no. 3 in popularity right now behind Hilary and Biden and the only reason Biden is ahead of her is because of name recognition.
Could she run if Hilary runs?  I honestly don't see it, but I think she would be a much better candidate and president than Hilary.  She has however praised Hilary in the past so I think she will take a back seat if Hilary decides to run.

I could however imagine a Warren/Baldwin ticket at some point.

The logic there seems to be "There is demand for her to run.  Therefore, she will run."  Sorry, but she actually has to do something to show that she's interested before I take this seriously.

[Mr. Morden]

Ben Carson is moving up in the world.  He's suddenly getting invites for the Sunday morning political shows:

http://www.politico.com//story/2013/02/sunday-talk-show-tip-sheet-87725.html

Oh, and the schedule for next month's CPAC gathering (which will include speeches by such 2016ers as Rubio, Ryan, Paul, Santorum, Cruz, Walker, and Jeb Bush) has been released:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/125668663/CPAC-2013-Schedule

[Mr. Morden]

Ben Carson is moving up in the world.  He's suddenly getting invites for the Sunday morning political shows:

http://www.politico.com//story/2013/02/sunday-talk-show-tip-sheet-87725.html

It's funny you said that - my parents were watching him on Hannity tonight, and I joined in to listen to him. Funny enough, someone asked him what was the first thing he'd do if elected President in 2016 and he actually gave a serious answer.

Video here (33 second mark or so):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqfsqi99zWk&list=UUq2eXCSiXldB4O0af_ulhIA&index=1

Guy asks him what he'll do in January 2017 after he's inaugurated, and he just starts answering, without stopping to say "I'm not running" or anything of the like.

Should also be noted, though, that in this clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pn5hJgFLfJw

he says that he's currently an Independent, and won't say who he voted for last year.  But rhetorically, he certainly seems to be more in sync with the GOP than the Dems.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not a Democrat but Obama is clearly one of the most qualified to have ever become President.

What?

You could make the case about him being one of the "smartest" or something like that.  You can say that he's shown himself to be more up to the job than others who were far more qualified....

But how is he one of the most qualified?  He was only a US Senator for four years before being elected president.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio has announced that he'll be making his second trip to Israel (and first to Jordan):

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/marco-rubio-heads-to-the-middle-east-87733.html?hp=l2

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Israel is of course a frequent stop of American politicians with presidential ambitions.  Christie, Rand Paul, O'Malley, and others have all visited Israel in recent years.

[Mr. Morden]

According to that logic Strom Thurmond is more qualified than any president ever.

No, George H.W. Bush is more what I would call one of the most (if not the most) qualified presidents ever: member of Congress, Ambassador to China, Ambassador to the UN, CIA Director, Vice President for 8 years.

Intelligence isn't a qualification in the normal sense one means when speaking of applying for a job.  "Qualifications" are normally meant to refer to what one has actually done, not what one is capable of doing, if given the chance.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico on how Jindal's recent moves in Louisiana are being seen through the prism of his desire to run for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/bobby-jindal-is-governing-like-its-2016-87736.html?hp=t1

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[Mr. Morden]

Another non-denial from Carson on whether he'll run for president:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/02/17/carson-says-2016-run-up-to-god-after-pushing-flat-tax-at-national-prayer-breakfast/

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[Mr. Morden]

Christie wants people to know that he's been traveling abroad:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167746.msg3631870#msg3631870

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[Mr. Morden]

Bob McDonnell apparently just had a meeting with Spencer Zwick, the finance chair for the Romney 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns:

http://hamptonroads.com/2013/02/sources-mcdonnell-talks-romneys-finance-chief

Obviously, they won't say what was discussed, but this seems like a strong hint that McDonnell has some interest in a national campaign of his own.

[Mr. Morden]

A few days ago, I mentioned Rubio's trip to Israel.  Well, he's arrived there, and met with Netanyahu.  Even posed for another joke about his State of the Union water gaffe:

[Mr. Morden]

Some news on Schweitzer: That poll of him being ahead in the 2014 Senate race in Montana was posted on his Facebook page, but Schweitzer said it was hist staff who posted it, not him:

http://www.kpax.com/news/poll-schweitzer-would-beat-baucus-in-senate-race/

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Not goofy enough to be in the House, nor senile enough to be in the Senate?  Schweitzer's actually used that line before, when explaining why he would never run for Congress:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3542863#msg3542863

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[Mr. Morden]

Never had much of a chance, but John Thune looks like he's sitting the presidential race out.

http://atr.rollcall.com/thune-tells-second-graders-he-has-no-plan-for-white-house-run/

The fact that he opted out of running in 2012, at a time when there was a big opening for any remotely competent "not Romney" candidate on the Right, suggested to me at the time that he is far more interested in climbing the Senate leadership ladder than running for president.  Little chance that he would run for prez in 2016, when his Senate seat is up for reelection, against a presumably stronger GOP field than existed in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer is hedging a bit on his previous insistence that he wouldn't run if Hillary Clinton did:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/meet-the-gun-loving-straight-talking-2016-democratic-presidential-dark-horse-20130222

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[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo has a big story on O'Malley's presidential ambitions, and his (so far) lack of traction from all those TV appearances and trips to Iowa and NH:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/is-md-gov-martin-omalley-running-for-president-or-not/2013/02/21/0c3a7bf8-75f0-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_story.html

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The most revealing bit in the article was this speculation by unnamed advisors about "camping out in Iowa" once his term ends....unless Clinton runs, in which case he'd opt out altogether:

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[Mr. Morden]

Big story in Politico today about Cuomo's presidential ambitions, and how they're frozen in place by Hillary Clinton:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/andrew-cuomo-new-problems-bad-headlines-hillary-clinton-87985.html?hp=f1

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In any case, while Cuomo presumably won't run if Clinton does, he sounds pretty determined to run for president some day, one way or the other:

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker and Pence on whether the 2016 GOP presidential nominee should be a governor:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/rubio-aside-some-say-gop-govs-best-hope-in-16-88001.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico on Hillary Clinton clearing the field on the Democratic side:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/the-hillary-clinton-factor-88007.html?hp=t2_3

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More on O'Malley:

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And some interesting tidbits about upcoming candidate visits to South Carolina:

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[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman visiting New Hampshire:

http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/Jon-Huntsman-visits-Granite-State/-/9857858/19049358/-/byasutz/-/index.html