The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Politico notes that Santorum has already registered the domain names "RickSantorum2016.com, RickSantorum2016.net and Santorum2016.net.":

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-candidate-websites-masters-of-the-2016-candidate-domains-84638.html?hp=r1

They note that it's also possible to pay a bit extra to buy your domain name anonymously, and so it's unclear who's bought Christie2016.com, ElizabethWarren2016.com or JoeBiden2016.com.

[Mr. Morden]

So I've done the capsule reviews of all evidence to date for quite a few candidates, but still haven't gotten around to writing the blurbs for prospective candidates Biden, Clinton, Cuomo, Warner, Warren, Christie, Martinez, Palin, Rubio, and a few others.  I will get to all of them eventually, but the next few weeks will probably be a bit slow on that front.  Some of them will take a while.

One thing that's become more apparent as I've written these, though, is the gap in early activity between the Dem. and GOP sides.  For example, AFAIK, the only Dems who've made trips to early primary states that could plausibly be construed as precursors to 2016 campaigns are:

Biden (was running for VP, so trips to IA and NH don't necessarily imply future presidential ambition)
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
O'Malley
Patrick
Schweitzer
Vilaraigosa

Others have dropped hints in other ways, but that list is nearly twice as long on the GOP side.  Are Dems just reluctant to commit to a run unless they're sure that HRC isn't running or something?  Or is there something else going on here?

[Mr. Morden]

Elizabeth Warren

Warren has gotten some presidential buzz from the moment she declared her Senate candidacy, if not before.  She won the first 2016 Democratic straw poll back in June:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155319.0

and is frequently included on lists of potential candidates.  Warren herself has done little to stoke the speculation.  In October, we saw this exchange in an interview with ABC News:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/elizabeth-warren-2016/

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Of course, at the time, Warren was in the middle of a competitive Senate race.  Now that she doesn't have to worry about that anymore, will she change her tune?

Two final points: 1) Warren will be 67 years old on election day 2016, so this is probably her one chance to run, if she wants to, and 2) as with many of the other candidates, there is the complicating factor of another potential candidate from the same state: Warren might be less inclined to run if Deval Patrick is also in the race.

Susana Martinez

Martinez got some buzz as a possible Romney running mate this year, but she refused to be vetted.  The primary reason she gave had to do with her family obligations:

http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/04/08/news/gov-on-vp-no-means-no.html

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Obviously, this could continue to be a problem in 2015/16, and could conceivably deter her from running from president.
Has she actually given any affirmative reasons to suggest that she might be thinking about running?  Until just the last week, the answer was no.  The Martinez buzz seemed to be entirely manufactured by others, and not Martinez herself.  But a few days ago, Politico noted this:

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I suppose this might just be for her reelection bid as governor, but it's not as if New Mexico is a particularly expensive state to run in.  More importantly, we have this exchange from an interview on Fox News:

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/12/susana-martinez-deflects-2016-chatter.html

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"No thoughts on that" is a far cry from Elizabeth Warren's "No, no, no, no, no".  Martinez previously said that she was going to serve the entirety of her first term as governor.  She doesn't seem to be quite ready (yet) to make the same promise for a potential second term, which means that she presumably holds open the possibility of running for president or VP in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush gets kind of zen:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/06/jeb-bush-national-constitution-center_n_2251174.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Santorum keeps teasing:

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2012/12/14/only-on-the-brody-file-rick-santorum-on-2016-presidential.aspx

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Hickenlooper downplays his chances of running, and says he's probably too moderate to win the nomination:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2012/12/hickenlooper-downplays-2016-speculation-14

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Of course, Hickenlooper faces reelection as CO governor in 2014, so portraying himself as a moderate is in his immediate political interest.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul says he's running for reelection for his Senate seat in 2016.  If he follows through on that, then he can't run for president in the same year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166421.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sarah Palin

Palin teased a 2012 presidential run back in 2011, including making a last minute trip to Iowa that coincided with the straw poll:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61067.html

She of course ultimately decided against a run.  Palin visited Iowa again in August 2012, in the thick of the Obama-Romney race, and weeks before the RNC:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/palin-visits-iowa-for-rastetter-dinner-131123.html

Palin's been relatively quiet in recent months.  Though there's never a shortage of drama in her family, as her 23 year old son has just filed for divorce after about a year and a half of marriage:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/gossip/la-et-mg-track-palin-divorce-sarah-palin-20121213,0,4100874.story

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee equivocated for several months on whether he'd run for the 2012 GOP nomination, but ultimately decided against it.  During his equivocation period, however, he sounded very much like a man who was done with politics, taking frequent shots at the game show-like presidential campaign process:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html

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The Huckabee train has taken on quite a bit of new baggage since his 2008 run.  I detail here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159316.0

why I think Huckabee is finished politically, and why, since he's not a fool, he presumably realizes that he's finished, and won't run for president ever again.  In brief, in addition to having granted clemency to Maurice Clemmons, who later murdered four police officers, Huck also has an Akin-like episode in his past.  1998 US Senate candidate Fey Boozman made the exact same rape gaffe made years later by Akin.  Huck not only defended him, but put him in charge of the state's Health Department(!).

Then in 2012, Huck became Akin's biggest defender, following the rape gaffe, rallying support for him among Baptist ministers, and raising money for him:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/27/mike-huckabee-defends-todd-akin-missouri-baptist_n_1833485.html

Just before the RNC, Huck unleashed on the party establishment, many of whom were worried that he'd go rogue in his convention speech:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158055.0

This isn't the normal way that someone builds support for a future presidential run.  By all of these circumstances, I don't think there's any realistic chance that Huckabee runs again.

But this thread isn't supposed to just be about my own opinion.  It's an effort to catalog all of the various clues.  So I feel compelled to note that Huckabee also appeared at Iowa's Family Leadership Summit in August of this year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154804.0

He also said just two weeks ago that he's undecided on a 2016 run:

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/12/huckabee-undecided-on-2016-run.html

Of course, Huckabee is also hawking his latest book, so any 2016 speculation doesn't hurt.

John Kasich

Kasich briefly ran for president back in 2000.  He's been a longshot name in the veepstakes going all the way back to 1996.  (Though he wasn't considered in 2012, because his job approval numbers in Ohio have been poor.)  If Kasich does manage to win reelection, will he quickly turn around and announce his own campaign for president in 2016?  He's not ruling it out:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/08/kasich-focused-on-own-re-election-bid.html

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Politico also notes that Kasich, along with 2016ers Jindal and McDonnell, met with Super PAC mega-donor Sheldon Adelson a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, while in town for the RGA:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

Will he actually run for prez?  My guess is probably not.  But he's had the presidential bug before, so you never know.  I do think though, that with his numbers rebounding a bit in Ohio, if he does manage to get reelected in 2014, he'll be mentioned in the 2016 veepstakes, particularly if the other Ohioan, Rob Portman, ends up recusing himself from the veepstakes to focus on his own 2016 Senate reelection campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

Joe Biden

Just like Biden announced his candidacy several times over when he ran in 2008, he's already been trying to announce his 2016 candidacy, starting as far back as 2009.  Here's a timeline of Joe or Jill Biden statements on the matter (along with some leaked stuff from Biden aides) going back to 2009:

August 2009:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=101116.0

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May 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115766.50

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October 2011:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142617.0

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May 2012:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151097.0

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Also in May 2012:

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June 2012:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/05/jill-biden-weighs-in-on-2016/

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August 2012:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/biden-looks-ahead-2016-election_650281.html

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October 2012, just a week before the 2012 election:

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/biden-floats-himself-in-147849.html

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Then on election day itself:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/06/biden-hints-at-2016-presidential-bid/

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[Mr. Morden]

Perry once again floats the idea of running again in 2016:

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/Perry-I-May-Run-for-President-Again-183882051.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Jon Huntsman

Following Huntsman's departure from the 2012 race, he didn't exactly appear to be endearing himself to the GOP primary electorate for a 2016 run.  First, he admitted that he thought about running as an Independent:

link

then he joined the Brookings Institute:

link

He also leveled various criticisms of Romney during the election campaign even after endorsing him:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/post/jon-huntsman-criticizes-mitt-romneys-china-policy/2012/02/16/gIQANxjEIR_blog.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81210.html

As recently as a few weeks ago, Huntsman joined up with No Labels:

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865567712/Huntsman-association-with-No-Labels-group-could-hurt-his-future-with-GOP.html?pg=all

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So, on the surface, Huntsman is doing everything possible to suggest that he's done running for president, at least within the GOP.  Yet, a week ago, Huntsman said that he's not ruling anything out:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio voted against the fiscal cliff deal, which of course could be read as a sign of 2016 ambitions.  Rand Paul voted against it as well, though he'd probably be voting against it regardless of his national ambitions.

All of the possible 2016ers on the Democratic side (Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warner) voted for it.

Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz are of course not sworn in yet, so didn't vote.

It'll be interesting to see what happens on the House side, particularly with Ryan.

[Mr. Morden]

Bob McDonnell

If I'm still posting here in 2015, I really should start a "who is running? tea leaves" thread that year for 2020.  That's because a few of the candidates actually start visiting the early primary states nearly five years before the primaries start.  I previously mentioned that Brian Schweitzer is one such candidate.  He did early primary state visits for 2016 back tin 2011.

Bob McDonnell is another such candidate.  He visited New Hampshire way back in 2011, after he'd already ruled out running in 2012:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61252.html

McDonnell was an early name on the Romney veepstakes list.  He was so eager to be picked as Romney's running mate, that he actually resorted to running ads promoting himself in his state, in an apparent attempt to boost his favorability for the veepstakes:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-mcdonnell-lobbies-to-be-mitt-romneys-vice-president-with-virginia-ad-buy-2012-4

During the veepstakes tryout period, McDonnell made a visit to Iowa:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/mcdonnell-hitting-iowa-for-romney-130008.html

Since Iowa's a swing state in the general election, and he was auditioning for veep, that particular visit doesn't necessarily suggest presidential ambitions of his own, but he made another Iowa visit later in the year, after Ryan had already been picked:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/mcdonnell-to-iowa-136741.html

That was before November's election.  What's McDonnell been doing since the election?  Well, he gave a non-denial of interest in 2016, when directly asked about it:

http://politics.blogs.timesdispatch.com/2012/11/08/mcdonnell-not-thinking-2016/

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In hist post-election rhetoric, he also seems to be jockeying for position on the national stage:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1116/GOP-leaders-Jindal-Christie-McDonnell-Walker-begin-jockeying-for-2016

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He also met with Super PAC-funder Sheldon Adelson on the sidelines of the RGA last month:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

Because 2016 will potentially have a number of big names running on the Republican side (Christie, Rubio, Ryan….), a McDonnell candidacy might be considered a longshot.  There had been speculation that if Mark Warner ran for governor again in 2013, then McDonnell might run for the senate seat that Warner would have to vacate if he won.  However, Warner confirmed that he would *not* be running for governor again in November, thus restricting McDonnell's options.  Since Warner decided to bow out, McDonnell has commented that he thinks he's more suited for an executive, rather than legislative job, his clearest indication yet that he's eyeing 2016:

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/12/mcdonnell-mum-future-favors-executive-authority

Mark Warner

Warner seemed to be gearing up for a run at the 2008 Democratic nomination back in 2006.  He made several early primary state visits and the like, but then, in October 2006, announced that he wouldn't be running.  The speculation was that he was scared off by the Hillary Clinton juggernaut, but there were also tabloid rumors of some kind of sexual harassment incident from Warner's past, that he didn't want becoming public.  AFAIK, those rumors have not resurfaced in the intervening years.

But that was the 2008 race.  What has Warner done in the past year to suggest an interest in running in 2016?

Well, he met with the Iowa delegation at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

He also met with big donors with the potential to fund a national race, as described by Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/2016-contenders-courting-mega-donors-84497.html

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Most tellingly though, despite the fact that Warner has, in the past, described his job as a Senator as frustrating:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/warner-on-supercommittee-failure-cutting-debt-and-deficit-shouldnt-be-that-hard/2011/11/21/gIQALMk5iN_blog.html

he decided to take a pass on the 2013 gubernatorial race in Virginia.  If he ran for, and was elected, governor again in 2013, then he'd have to transition almost immediately into a presidential race.  So the simplest option, if he wants to run for prez, is to stay in the Senate.  After all, it's tough to take a year off from being governor to run for president, but easy enough to be an absentee senator for an arbitrarily long period of time. 

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul visits Israel, a perennial stop for presidential aspirants:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/08/while-visiting-israel-sen-paul-calls-for-less-u-s-foreign-aid/

In Paul's case, however, he's not necessarily sticking to the familiar talking points for American politicians who visit Israel, as he's using the trip to talk about reducing foreign aid.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuccinelli did an interview with Iowa-based conservative radio host Steve Deace:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/on-iowa-radio-cuccinelli-says-jail-may-be-a-fitting-protest-to-feds-contraception-mandate/2013/01/10/61543c3e-5b8b-11e2-b8b2-0d18a64c8dfa_story.html

Deace is based in Iowa, but nationally syndicated. Make of that what you will.

[Mr. Morden]

Howard Dean

Dean belongs squarely in the category of Democrats who get along with neither the Clinton nor Obama political teams.  The Clintons didn't like his handling of the 2008 primary process controversies, and then Dean seemed to have something of a falling out with the Obama team in the following year, perhaps related to Obama passing him over for Sebelius at HHS.

Dean criticized Obamacare when it moving through Congress, saying that the country needed single payer instead:

http://www.gohealthinsurance.com/blog/coverage/entry/20091216

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In 2012, he even went so far as to say that he hoped the Supreme Court struck down the individual mandate:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/howard-dean-individual-mandate_n_1609171.html

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In 2011, he said that many Obama administration aides had treated progressives "with contempt":

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2011/0105/Howard-Dean-blasts-White-House-for-treating-liberals-with-contempt

There was even some trumped up media speculation in 2010/2011 about Dean primarying Obama in 2012, but Dean declined.

If Dean were actually interested in a presidential run in 2016, he seems like the rare Democratic candidate who might not be deterred from entering the race if Hillary Clinton runs.  (Indeed, he might relish acting as the Bill Bradley to Clinton's Al Gore.)  But is he interested?  He certainly has some fans hoping so, as there are at least three websites/blogs devoted to Dean 2016:

http://www.dailykos.com/blog/dean2016/#

http://www.dean2016.com

http://www.deanin16.com

Dean himself, though hasn't been making the rounds in Iowa or New Hampshire that folks like O'Malley and Schweitzer have been making.  Has he left any hints of interest in running again?

Well, he's left the door open a crack.  From an NPR interview at the DNC last year:

http://www.npr.org/2012/09/05/160615423/the-political-junkie-recaps-the-dnc-so-far

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And then again just yesterday:

http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/97114/dean-on-2016-run-probably-but-well-see/

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[Mr. Morden]

Andrew Cuomo

On the surface, one might think that Cuomo isn't actually doing anything to indicate an interest in running for president.  He certainly isn't doing the conventional things that Martin O'Malley is doing, like visiting the early primary states and meeting with the right people at last year's DNC.  In fact, he barely attended the DNC, only visiting the event for all of a few hours, to give a speech to the New York delegation.  He also never does national interviews like O'Malley does, and is in general trying to keep a low national profile.

Sort of.

The conventional wisdom is that Cuomo's trying to keep a low national profile, because he doesn't want constant presidential speculation to impact his job as governor in the way that some thought happened with his father.  His desire to avoid presidential speculation made all the more extraordinary last summer's comments by the elder Cuomo on his son's future:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/nyregion/cuomos-father-speaks-of-presidential-future-for-son.html

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But beyond that, while "officially" Cuomo frowns on presidential speculation, he seems to be letting his aides and fundraising people talk pretty openly to the media about his presidential ambitions, just not on the record with their real names:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/nyregion/cuomos-presidential-dreams-and-a-clinton-in-the-way.html?_r=0

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The most interesting line from that article is this one:

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OK, assuming that that advisor is telling the truth, that suggests that Cuomo is remarkably open, at least with his own aides, about wanting to run in '16.

What are the other clues?  Well, his desire to play nice with the Republicans in the state legislature is widely seen as a desire to not take political risks, and be seen as bipartisan so that he can run up the score in his 2014 reelection campaign, and be seen as a candidate with crossover appeal when he vies for the presidential nomination.  (The same strategy that Hillary Clinton followed in her 2006 reelection campaign.)  And about that 2014 reelection campaign……as of a few months ago, Cuomo had already raised $19 million for that race…..a race which is still two years away:

http://www.newyorktrue.com/andrew-cuomo-campaign-finance-reform/

That puts his fundraising haul for 2014 about on par with all of the rest of the nation's governors seeking 2014 reelection combined.  Any leftover money from that race could then be rolled over into a presidential campaign.

Cuomo is also among the (relatively small) group of prospective 2016ers who has not already committed to endorsing Hillary Clinton if she runs:

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/cuomo-ducks-on-hillary-in-2016-84850.html

Finally, there's been a flurry of presidential speculation surrounding Cuomo in recent days, following clues that numerous media folks claim to have gotten from his state of the state address:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/years-office-gov-andrew-cuomo-channeled-mario-article-1.1237087

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[Mr. Morden]

I just think the visit to the Reagan Library and the close association with the mega-donors make it obvious. Not saying '16 will be his cycle, but interest is there.

He visited New Hampshire last year, and he refused to rule out a presidential run when asked about it.  I'd say Walker is interested.  Though as you say, 2016 might not be his year.  In particular, he'll probably defer to Ryan if Ryan is interested in running in '16, since he's the Cheesehead of the moment.  But if Ryan decides to take a pass on a presidential run for whatever reason, then Walker is certainly a possibility.

[Mr. Morden]

Those candidate bios on prez16 are remarkably good.

[Mr. Morden]

On Monday, Rand Paul will be in South Carolina to have a private meeting with some conservative bigwigs in the state:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/is_paul_getting_an_early_start_on_2016_white_house_race-220814-1.html

He certainly looks like someone who's considering a 2016 presidential run.  This, despite the fact that, as noted last month, he's already said he's running for reelection for his Senate seat, yet the timing of the filing deadlines in Kentucky makes it logistically impossible to simultaneously run for president:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166421.0

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio, Ryan, Santorum, and Rand Paul will all speak at CPAC in March:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/17/rick-santorum-to-speak-at-key-conservative-conference/

Probably some other 2016ers will as well (e.g., Jindal usually speaks at CPAC, doesn't he?), but those are the only prospective 2016ers who've been announced so far.

[Mr. Morden]

So I already mentioned that Paul, Rubio, Ryan and Santorum will be speaking at CPAC.  Looks like Jindal, Gingrich, and Walker will be doing so as well.  And in fact, CPAC will go international this year, as Stephen Harper and Benjamin Netanyahu will speak as well:

http://www.wisconsingazette.com/breaking-news/wis-governor-to-speak-at-conservative-conference.html

It also looks like the National Review Institute will be holding a "The Future of Conservatism" summit next week, with Cruz, Ryan, Jindal, DeMint, McDonnell, and Walker all slated to speak:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/15/inside-the-beltway-lonely-obama-in-2008/

[Mr. Morden]

The Cruz profile highlights something that I'd missed, which is that when Politico ran a story titled "Ted Cruz speech stokes 2016 speculation", Cruz actually reposted it on his website.  Hardly the act of someone looking to downplay presidential speculation.

[Mr. Morden]

Chris Christie

Given the fact that he both purportedly wanted to see Romney elected in 2012 and that he faces reelection in a Democratic leaning state this year, Christie has been remarkably open about the fact that he's remarkably open about running for president himself in 2016.

Let's walk through the history of signals from Christie that he may or may not be interested in national office.

Let's start with Christie porn.  No, this isn't something sexual that would appeal to a female or gay version of Clarence.  These are the videos of Christie yelling at people that got movement conservatives so excited in 2010, affectionately dubbed Christie porn by some:

http://www.therightscoop.com/oh-yeah-more-chris-christie-porn/

Now, I'm not going to pass judgment on this here, but it's fair to say that at least some pundits saw this as a staged way for Christie to get on Youtube and expand his brand to a nationwide audience, getting him in the conversation as a possible future candidate for national office.

In fact, Christie was so successful in building his national brand that, in 2010 and 2011, there was a drumbeat of support for him to enter the race for the 2012 GOP nomination, since the existing field was so awful.  Christie denied any interest very early, as recounted in this timeline of his presidential denials:

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2011/10/brief-history-chris-christie-not-running-president

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Christie continued to deny interest in running for president, yet in July of 2011, he visited Iowa:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2011/07/25/new-jersey-governor-chris-christie-visits-iowa-rekindling-speculation-about-a-presidential-run/

Finally, after more than a year of repeated denials, the reporting suddenly suggested that Christie was reconsidering…..before finally deciding again on October 4th that he's not going to run, and he really means it this time.  Again, from that Mother Jones timeline:

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One the day that he announced once and for all that he wasn't running in 2012, his advisors leaked to the press that he "was seriously looking at a run in 2016 and he refused to rule out the prospect of a future run.":

http://www.gazette.com/articles/trenton-126137-christie-decided.html

One week later, Christie endorsed Romney for the GOP nomination and the presidency.

Then, in the middle of the primary season, Christie does an interview with Oprah in which he mentions how much more ready he'll be for the presidency in 2016:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/gov_christie_tells_oprah_hell.html

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Uhhh….Chris, you're a Republican who's endorsed Mitt Romney for president.  Isn't the correct answer on this topic "I don't see myself running in 2016 because I expect that Mitt Romney will be running for reelection"?

In any case, as we fastforward to spring.  Christie visits Israel and meets with Netanyahu, perhaps to burnish his international bona fides:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/the_whale_at_the_wall_oken1GUqPamnfVeZB6xgHL

During the spring and summer, Christie was apparently being vetted as a potential running mate for Romney.  A Politico story in May said the following:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153558.msg3296343#msg3296343

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He wanted it the most perhaps because he wanted to block a Rubio or a Ryan from becoming the next in line after Romney?  In any case, subsequent leaks, months after the fact, cast some doubt on this (Christie's purported desperation to be VP), but I won't rehash all of that now.  Suffice it to say, the Christie and Romney folks have starkly different takes on Christie's participation in the veepstakes.

Romney of course picked Ryan instead, though Christie was given the keynote speech at the convention….a speech which many people said was more about promoting himself for national office than it was about Romney:

http://www.ibtimes.com/rnc-speech-chris-christie-positions-himself-2016-and-upstages-romney-759755

At the convention, Christie spoke to both the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations:

http://omaha.com/article/20120827/NEWS/120829746

link

He then went to one event in Iowa and two events in New Hampshire during the fall:

http://thegazette.com/notes/government/20120911/nj-gov-christie-to-campaign-in-iowa/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/25/christie-visit-to-n-h-raises-some-eyebrows/

http://exeter.patch.com/articles/nj-gov-chris-christie-coming-to-exeter

Days before the election, he went out of his way to praise Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy.  You can read that however you like, but the Machiavellian take on it is that he wanted to give Obama a boost for his reelection so that 2016 would be an open contest that Christie could run in.

Following the election, Politico ran a story on 2016 politicking, which included this blurb on Christie:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3527577#msg3527577

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Finally, last month, he repeated the "I'll be more ready to be president in 2016" mantra from earlier in the year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166663.0

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[Mr. Morden]

After compiling all of those details on Christie, I feel like I've just written a novel.  OK, I know that I still have to do blurbs on Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio.  Anyone else?  Is there anyone who I haven't done a blurb on yet who I should?

[Mr. Morden]

So I already mentioned LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's purported desire to replace Ray LaHood as Secretary of Transportation in Obama's second term, as well as his apparent desire to then run for president.  Well, despite previously saying that he'd be out after one term, LaHood is still in office, and hasn't given any indication as to when he's leaving:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/ray-lahood-second-term-cabinet-status-86237.html

Meanwhile, Villaraigosa seems to have gotten himself into an awkward spot with Charlie Sheen.  Sheen tweeted this pic from the opening of the actor's hotel bar in Mexico:



The LA Times recaps the apparent dispute over what happened:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2013/01/charlie-sheen-antonio-villaraigosa.html

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Will this hurt Villaraigosa's presidential ambitions as much as Romney's run in with Sky Blu hurt his? [/sarcasm]