IA: Des Moines Register: Romney and Bachmann at the top

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty is taken more seriously than Bachmann as a potential nominee because he would actually be acceptable to the party "establishment", and Bachmann wouldn't.  And every GOP presidential nominee for decades has been supported by the party establishment.  Whether that'll continue to be true in the "Tea Party era" remains to be seen.

[Mr. Morden]

For comparison, here's the May 2007 Des Moines Register poll:

30% Romney
18% McCain
17% Giuliani
  7% Thompson
  5% Brownback
  4% Huckabee
  4% Tancredo
  1% Cox
  1% Gilmore
  1% Hunter
12% Undecided

Was that Fred Thompson or Tommy Thompson?

[Mr. Morden]

For comparison, here's the May 2007 Des Moines Register poll:

30% Romney
18% McCain
17% Giuliani
  7% Thompson
  5% Brownback
  4% Huckabee
  4% Tancredo
  1% Cox
  1% Gilmore
  1% Hunter
12% Undecided

Was that Fred Thompson or Tommy Thompson?

Fred Thompson hadn't entered the fray in May 2007.

Yes, but he was included in most polls, because he was publicly flirting with the possibility of running, just like Palin and Perry are now.  He was in double digits in most of the national polls by May 2007.

However, I'm guessing this was probably Tommy Thompson, since it looks like DMR doesn't include candidates who aren't running yet.  Just like they didn't include Palin or Perry in this poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Comparing the 2007 with the current poll numbers, I think there is still plenty of time and room to improve for serious candidates like Pawlenty or Huntsman who are now polling in the single digits - Huckabee has shown that it's possible. A candidate like Cain, however, has probably reached his peak. He seems to have been losing ground in the polls recently.

Hunstman has already declared that he'll skip Iowa, so the whole conversation is moot.

Pawlenty has nowhere near the charisma and charm of Huckabee, nor the natural constituency to strongly support him.

Oh yes, I forgot that Huntsman decided to skip Iowa. So he's out of any considerations regarding Iowa of course. As for Pawlenty, he's an evangelical, or at least claims to be one. Maybe evangelicals will eventually rally behind him?

Pawlenty's potential path to success likely involves both of the following happening:

1) Perry doesn't run.
2) Romney either implodes, or largely skips Iowa, and Pawlenty scoops up the bulk of his former supporters.

[Mr. Morden]

Prediction: Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney comes in second, Romney wins New Hampshire and then it's Romney and Bachmann the rest of the way. Romney comes out on top.

Well, that's the obvious extrapolation from current trends.  But there are likely to be several unpredictable momentum changes between now and then that'll shake things up, perhaps as drastically as those that led Kerry and McCain to rise from the ashes in 2004 and 2008.