Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Vega]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

How is that possible? I fully expected the less "authoritarian" candidate to win internationally. I imagine Keiko's ethnicity might play a role in Asia (though I won't pretend to know anything about these dynamics in Peruvian society), but elsewhere?

I think you're thinking about it the wrong way. International Peruvians don't usually make up a unique constituency and so I don't think you can think of them unanimously in any direction.

How are internationals ever representative for their countries? We're almost always talking about people who, by definition, have more "global connections" and are more well-off.

That's not really completely accurate, though.

I mean, a comparatively back woods Peruvian who gets a scholarship to study somewhere, or someone who has a spouse, etc. is different than the minority, however influential, of intellectuals with those "global connections" like, and this is a fitting example, Mario Vargas Llosa.

You're going to find more people with the latter identities in Europe and Asia though. Some of the overseas voters in Asia might be Japanese-Peruvians or the like who went back to their ancestral home for better economic opportunities as well.

[Vega]

Europe went heavy for PPK and USA went for Fujimori by a small margin

Wait, did something radically change during the past few hours? I see PPK winning the USA with 54% to 46% of Keiko.

America as a whole has stayed with Fujimori, but the USA has gone more towards PPK.

[Vega]

1% is remaining. Since there are ~18M votes, ~180K votes are remaining. PPK's lead margin is 42K votes. So, KF needs 111K vs 69K in the remaining votes. It is hard.

But not impossible.

[Vega]

Fujimori seems to be benefiting from the recent small vote dumps. PPK's lead is under 40k, about 38k now.

[Vega]

El Chino will live on through Kenji Fujimori in 2021. Mark my words.

And the fantastic thing is that Fujimori Sr. will be released either on house arrest or plane out during PPK's term, so he'll have plenty of time to plot out his favorite son's campaign.