Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Vega]

The apathy by the left and center may be the key to Keiko winning.

[Vega]

If the left don't turn out to vote though, doesn't that help PPK?

No, it helps Fujimori. The left is far more content with him, even if it is a cold contentedness.

[Vega]

Fujimori's brother says he will seek Peru presidency if she loses

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-idUSKCN0XM1ZR

Kenji Fujimori will run in 2021 if Keiko loses in the second round it seems.

I'm surprised he wasn't the one in the family who entered presidential politics. He was Alberto's preferred son.

But I don't think that is terribly surprising, if he doesn't run, I'm sure some family member will.

[Vega]

Yeah, the race is definitely a dead heat, but Fujimori has the passion and arguably the momentum around her.

[Vega]

It seems Fujimori has taken the lead at this point from all the public polls.

[Vega]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

Terrible news. PPK will have to fight hard on next Sunday's debate if he wants to have a chance.

I don't believe Presidential debates have a terribly large impact on debates, if 2011 or past years are to judge.

[Vega]

GKF poll has Fujimori ahead 50.3 to 49.7.   Virtual tie

Seems to be an outlier.

[Vega]

Final Ipsos poll bad PPK ahead  50.4 to 49.6.

I'm going to hope that is the outlier.

[Vega]

If elected, could PPK work with a Fujimorista majority in the congress?! And can congress make It hard for PPK?

He really doesn't have any other choice, and yes, they certainly can. Peru's President is a little stronger than Congress, so there is that.

I imagine he'll throw his weight behind a pardon for Alberto Fujimori, and possibly go farther in that way then Keiko can given her relation.

But he, as someone who is on the right wing, will have a more easy go of things with his policies. It certainly won't be a model relationship though.

[Vega]

Final Ipsos poll bad PPK ahead  50.4 to 49.6.

ipsos is famous for terrible polls

They're a little stretched thin, considering they poll just about every country in the world.

[Vega]

Usual question about which website to check?

[Vega]

Usual question about which website to check?

ONPE will have the oficial results at some point, but nothing, yet.

I just found this:

http://peru21.pe/resultados-elecciones-2016

which will be updated with the actual results.

[Vega]

From what I've read, apparently the quick count is expected out within the hour.

[Vega]

Ok, I understand. Thanks ag!

Actually, I still do not. The sample is anything but random. Some places, it seems, are far ahead in reporting than others. I do not know if they did some other adjustment in doing the sample.

It's a rather strange system that is ripe for fraud, actually.

[Vega]

In theory Keiko could win with the remaining 10% or so, but given the lack of fluidity in the results, that's unlikely.

[Vega]

Keiko keeps coming up and narrowing PPK's lead. It's below 1% now.

I think she might win it if this trend continues.

[Vega]

The margin is just over 100,000 votes now, and 9% of actas left (if one includes those with incosistencies). Still too close to call. Praying for PPK.

There are still the overseas votes to count as well.

[Vega]

Looks like the vote counting has stopped.  I guess it will be hours if not days before we find out for sure who won.

They are reporting in large chunks at rare intervals. Remember, the first report was 36%.

If the April election is any indication, they should be done counting by tomorrow evening.

[Vega]

Few percent more came in, bringing us up to 94.19%, and making PPK's lead even narrower...

PPK - 50.27%
Fujimori - 49.72%

Just over 90,000 votes separate them.

[Vega]

So, which category of actas should be seen to see how many are left? Some people tell me Recorded, other tell me Processed.

[Vega]

Gap down to 47K but that seems to be totally as result of Fujimori's lead in foreign vote count going over 4K.  PPK's Peru only lead is still around 51.6K.  It is hard to see how the foreign vote can overcome the remaining 47K advantage by itself.  Fujimori has to make real gains in what remains of the Peru vote.

And she might given what's out in the rural areas.

[Vega]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

[Vega]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

How is that possible? I fully expected the less "authoritarian" candidate to win internationally. I imagine Keiko's ethnicity might play a role in Asia (though I won't pretend to know anything about these dynamics in Peruvian society), but elsewhere?

I think you're thinking about it the wrong way. International Peruvians don't usually make up a unique constituency and so I don't think you can think of them unanimously in any direction.

[Vega]

PPK's running mate, Martin Vizcarra, declared victory saying that on the ground reports shows that PPK should win by 100K

What reports are those?

[Vega]

Hopefully an early victory declaration does not come back to bite him in the ass.

I mean, he'll have egg in his face, but if he doesn't win, it's the last election he'll run in, so it's nothing to worry about.