Here's my election prediction....

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If the election is close with the Democrats winning, I'd still like to see a recount. Nothing wrong with making sure who reportedly won is actually the winner.

Agreed.  We might as well get it right.

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UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 275 to Kerry 263

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Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.

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Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.

I hate to say it, but he's right.

I meant within, I hope you know.

If Giuliani ran at the top of the ticket someday, I don't think he would win New York.  But he would make it close, forcing the Dem to spend resources there.

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He could put New Jersey and Connecticut into play, though.

No, he couldn't.  Giuliani is from NY, not CT or NJ.

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SO are quite a lot of people in NJ and CT, and quite a lot of people in NH...

If anything, Giuliani would turn people off in NJ because he's from NY.

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harry there is no way kerry loses NJ

Yes there is, Gore only won it by 16% I recall.

Harry----Kerry also could win NC is he picked Edwards.  It isn't likely, but it is necessary when you are predicting the best-case scenario for Kerry.

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Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

If Bush is down in the polls he would anounce the capture of Osama, even if it weren't true.

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I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

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I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

If it came out before the election, though. . . . Kerry may be even more sucessful than the best case map I made.

What if Bush announced the capture n Nov. 1, 2004?  But then it might look fixed...

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I actually meant to imply that they know approximately where he is and will make sure to get the timing right, but faking it would be worthwhile if we were in desperate straights.  After the electino it could be revealed that the body was someone else - just a mistake.  

It would be tough to pull off.

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Well, you are correct, it wouldn't work, an investigation would be launched and Bush would be impeached or resign.

But then you'd get Cheney as President, so what the heck.

But that would lead to an anti-GOP backlash in the future, which would essentially swing congress to the Dems in 2006 and the white house to the Dems in 2008.

I could see Bush faking the capture of bin Laden in order to win the election.  I could see 85% of politicans doing something like that in similar situations.  Only the truly honest (Jimmy Carter wouldn't do it, for example) would refrain.

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I don't think so.  The personal and political ramifications of getting caught in something like that are too great for all but the MOST currupt people.  I don't even think that Nixon would do something like that.

Look at what's at stake: THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.  The most powerful position in the world, arguably.  Power brings out the worst in people.

I hate to say it, but I do believe I would fake the capture of bin Laden to save my re-election campaign.

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Well, maybe I'm just naive then in believing that most politicians wouldn't go to those lengths morally.

Yes, you are.  I said the only ne I can think of that definitely wouldn't do it is Jimmy Carter.