2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[© tweed]

Most philly democrats are not latte drinking liberals.

Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.

[© tweed]

I Predict that Kerry Wins by 500,000 votes.

Same as Al Gore did.

I think Bush will win the PV big by racking up majorities in the south.

[© tweed]

Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.

Philly liberal are WAY different from Pittsburgh liberal, your right about that Miami.  Western PA is going to have a hard time swollowing Kerry, I'm not saying that they won't vote Kerry, but the culture clash between the regional personalities and Kerry's could be enough for Bush to prevail in the Pittsburgh area.  If that happens then PA is Bush country.

There is no such thing as a Pittsburgh issue.  They are the coal miners and vote on economics (for the most part.)

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1244

SC & KS are strong Dem, but OH goes Rep?

Heh.

Good one

SC and KY solid Dem also.

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 366
Kerry/Edwards 172

[© tweed]

Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.

Also DC goes Bush.

[© tweed]

Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.

Also DC goes Bush.

errr, no it doesn't, are you looking at the linked map? DC is Democrat in it.....

I'm seeing it as blue

[© tweed]

Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.

Also DC goes Bush.

errr, no it doesn't, are you looking at the linked map? DC is Democrat in it.....

I'm seeing it as blue

oops, n/m we were looking at different maps, there are 2 linked ones.

right, okay.  

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 366
Kerry/Edwards 172

[© tweed]

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :


Bush - 304
Kerry - 234

Not bad---

Bush will get 50% in CO and FL...etc...

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3267

Kerry does well enough to take Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Arizona but Bush manages to take a slight lead in the EC by taking New York.

The guy is from Alabama.  That might have something to do with it.

[© tweed]

Revised for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 274
D - 264

If New Mexico goes Kerry we have a tie. That would be interesting.

Arkansas?

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 394
Kerry/Edwards 144

Switched IL, ME, and DE to Bush.

[© tweed]

Wow. And how comes CA is still Dem and IL isn't?

And I think you're going over-baord now. It isn't gonna be THAT bad.

1. IT would take a 650K vote swing in CA, only a 240K or so swing in IL.

2. It will be that bad

[© tweed]

%-swing is more imprtant than in absolute terms. It would take a 45K vote swing in Wyoming, but that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

It does for states of equal percentages

[© tweed]

Why the DC elector?

[© tweed]

He/She did last time.

Tey won't necessarily be the same people.

[© tweed]

Here is a classic :

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3359

Montana and Indiana going Democrat? lol

That guy gives comments too...there is a method to his madness.

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=970

ND & SD Strong Dem...

But OH & PA Tossups for Bush

Maine also.

[© tweed]

Yep, the NE-02

How?  Gore didn't even win a Nebraska county in 2000, and lost NE-02 by 18.4%.

[© tweed]

It would be funny if my scenario actually happened.

It would be verry cool.

[© tweed]

Kerry ain't winning crap in Nebraska give that thought up. Maine might split, maybe.

Maine almost split last time, it took them a couple hours to call Maine's second district.

[© tweed]

Your percentages are messed up

[© tweed]

so?
got a point?

How the hell will Bush get 80% in Texas?  And 60% in the upper south?  And Kerry 60% in WI?

[© tweed]

since it makes no difference to me what margins they get i didn't even try to guess them.
winning a state by 80% is no different than winning by 1%.

Bush got 59% in TX in 2000, he would need 21% more to reach 80%.

I don't think he will even reach 60% there.  He runs pretty poorly in the urban areas, which are growing.