FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1% (user search)
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  FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1% (search mode)
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Author Topic: FRIDAY RASMUSSEN - Bush has good day, Kerry still leads by 2.1%  (Read 2606 times)
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Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
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« on: April 08, 2004, 12:09:46 PM »

Where do you get those numbers?!?!?!?!?!
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,562
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2004, 01:06:21 PM »

Where do you get those numbers?!?!?!?!?!

Very easy to calculate actually..

if you "right click" on the rasmussen page and select "view source" you can get, to a tenth of a %, the exact 3 day tracking numbers from the HTML code..

Rasmussen also publishes his 7 day tracks down to a tenth of a percent.

Example:

Day1        
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Day6
Day7   3day, 3day, 7day, 7day
Day8
Day9
Day10
Day11
Day12
Day13
Day14  3day, 3day, 7day, 7day

Lets say I have the 7 day total for Days 7 and 14

for simplicity say the support for Days 8 to 14 was 45%, I thus know the total of days 8 to 14 was 7 x 45 = 315

I also have the 3 day tracks for day 14 and day 11 so you subtract 3 times the combined total of day 14 and day 11 from "315" and like magic I have the exact daily total for Day 8..
For example if the support on Day 14 was 44 and the support on day 11 was 45 we have

(315 - (3x45) - (3x44) = 48)

We know the single day track on Day 8 must have been 48....

I repeat to get the exact 1 day score for day 7, I now have two days in a row, and from there is is simple enough to calculate all the other days based upon the daily 3 day rolls..

If the 3 day score is 45, and support the two days before was 44 and 45, the 3rd day score musy have been 46...

There is a very minor error in that the 7 day scores are rounded to .1%, (ie 45.2 could be 45.15, or 45.25) so my 7 day total could be out by as much as a combined .35%, so my one day scores may be .35% higher or lower than I post, but hey .35% is close enough..

Hope that helps.. Smiley

Yeah...emm, why don't you keep calculating it?
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