I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.
In France, there is a race for the 1st spot between LREM and Rassemblement National. Both will get more than 20% of the votes and RN seems to be leading the race. Then you have Les Republicans probably under 15%. No one else is sure to get more than 10%. In particular the left is very divided with 3 parties polling between 5 and 10% and 2 more just below 5%. There is also Debout la France (soverainist right) who is fighting to reach the 5% threshold. No else will reach 5%, which is the threshold to enter the Parliament.