A note about biden approvals and midterms

[Matty]

I've seen the argument in here that "biden's approvals aren't a proxy" for midterm margins.

I don't disagree. Nobody is arguing that if he is at -12 on election day, that will translate to GOP+12.

Rarely does that ever happen in US politics.

But at low approvals, what does happen is that you begin to bleed enough support to the point where a +0 midterm starting point becomes -1, then -2, then -3, etc as your ratings drop.

If even 5-10% of biden voters who now disapprove of him switch to the gop for 2022 and/or stay home, that is enough to swing the midterm elections. That's what we saw in 2018 and 2014 and 2010.

tl/dr: nobody is arguing that approvals exactly match margins, but they do generally determine how midterm ends up.

[Matty]

I agree with this and will add even a GOP + 3 environment would prolly spell big trouble for Dems as they'd likely lose both chambers of Congress and a lot of key governorships. The GOP doesn't have to win by much to have significant victories electorally.

I think 2022 will be less about voters actually switching and voting against Dems but Dems being less energized than the GOP.

Yep. In 2010 and 2014 for example, it wasn’t so much that a bunch of people became repubs, it was that turnout collapsed among dems

2018 is a different story I think. 2018 saw a lot of Trump 2016 voters vote dem.