Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Matty]

Apparently this is bodycam footage of warnock's ex wife crying to cops about his conduct.

"This man’s running for United States Senate, and all he cares about right now is his reputation," she tells the officer. "I’ve been very quiet about the way that he is for the sake of my kids and his reputation."

https://twitter.com/StephenLawson_/status/1341564642481623041

[Matty]

This is probably a nothingburger, but I also thought the cal cunningham texts were a nothingburger, and they probably cost him some votes.

[Matty]

Nate Cohn, whom i respect more than any other data yoda, is tweeting daily now that the EV data is beyond dem’s wildest dreams

We’ll see

[Matty]

Honest question:

is there ANY good news for the gop in any of this ev data?

it looks dreadful.

[Matty]

Is early vote data actually worth reading into? People on here thought blue Texas was inevitable based on massive early voting turnout, only to be sorely disappointed.

texas ev data simply indicated that turnout would be massive. it didn't tell you which side was turning out.

georgia ev data indicates a d electorate.

[Matty]

I believe Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue would have better off if Trump had simply kept his mouth shut and not made a big such a big deal about the relief bill since he now has indicated he is going to sign it

The GOP could have portrayed the passage of the bill as them providing much needed relief
to the American people and both Loeffler and Perdue could have gotten a boost from that

Instead Trump decided he wanted to demonize the bill and claim that he wanted to give 2,000 dollars to every American. Now after all of his talk it looks like he is about to sign the same bill he spent days attacking and he ends up making both his party and himself look like a fools for pulling this stunt in the first place

Him not signing it would have been far worse.

it will be old news in a week.

[Matty]

Former camper at Warnock’s church camp recounts abuse that took place.

Among the indignities 12-year-old Anthony Washington endured at the church camp overseen by Reverend Raphael Warnock: counselors who tossed urine on him and locked him outside his cabin overnight.

Washington, now 30, recounted the events in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon and said his experience at the camp resulted in a 2003 lawsuit that ended two years later, when Washington says he and his family received a large financial settlement.

Washington’s account of the 2002 events provides the first direct insight into the alleged abuse and neglect that transpired at Camp Farthest Out, which Warnock oversaw as senior pastor of Maryland's Douglas Memorial Community church, and raises new questions for the Democrat, who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Georgia.

Washington expressed surprise when he was told Warnock is currently running for U.S. Senate in Georgia. "I don’t think nobody like [Warnock] should be running for damn Senate nowhere, running a camp like that," he told the Free Beacon. "He should not be running for government."

Warnock has faced scrutiny over his 2002 arrest for allegedly obstructing a child abuse investigation by Maryland State Police that centered on the camp's treatment of children. Washington's account is buttressed by records from the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, obtained by the Free Beacon earlier this month, which indicated that campers were routinely left unsupervised; staffers were not subject to required criminal background check; and at least five cases of child abuse or neglect were brought against the camp's director, who was ultimately forced to resign.

https://t.co/q9B7xnHq5t?amp=1

[Matty]

The reason I am so skeptical of the polls showing ossof and warnock up by high single digits is that we have an election to compare those numbers to. Biden won by 0.3 in GA, Perdue won by 2 with that same electorate.

And, while the EV does show dems doing slightly better than the EV in November, it doesn’t suggest a +7 D race at all.

Sometimes, the top lines of polls are enough to discredit them. Who are all these people switching from Perdue to ossof since November?

[Matty]

If dems take both GA seats, then 2022 should start off as a lean D election

[Matty]

Yea because the suburbs have historically been turned off by accusing people of Marxism

Lol

[Matty]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

[Matty]

I'm officially back in my election week state of being unable to do or think about anything except the runoffs. It's officially time to go outside lol. Come on GA, you can save the 2020s.

The idea that a 50-50 senate will “save” the 2020s opposed to a 52-48 R is rather silly.

[Matty]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

[Matty]

In reality, the chances of key progressive legislation passing 51-50 is quite low. Filibuster will be there, and sinema and manchin likely will oppose using reconciliation for non-budget stuff

You hope

The filibuster may well be abolished and certainly will be for adding new states.

Where will the votes be to abolish it? Manchin says no. Sinema as well.

A 50-50 senate will maybe increase chances of judges getting confirmed, but those chances were already high. Collins, murkowski, etc will be voting for any qualified judge.

It’s going to be Trump and Obama era 2.0.

Filibuster will prevent any big legislation. Tax reform done through reconciliation

[Matty]

If loeffler being pictured with kkk folks is fair game, why isn’t Warnock’s association with Jeremiah wright and Louis Farrakhan.

This is the problem with this board. You guys let your personal bias affect your analysis of the race

I try to come here for objective input, and it’s a dem circle jerk at times

[Matty]

Something I am very interested in seeing:

will the two races have identical county maps?

[Matty]

Saw an interesting theory:

Parties only do well out of power AFTER a year or so into a president’s term.

In elections immediately following a loss, the losing party sees dampened turnout due to depressed voters who are dismayed

Remember: gop did poorly in December 2008 and early 2009 elections

[Matty]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

[Matty]

The person who took the Perdue picture is black, and is demanding Judd legum take down the tweet or legal action will be taken. Judd legum completely made up the story

[Matty]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

Ah yes, the brilliant posters who respectively had Biden up by 16 nationally, up 17 in Wisconsin, Van Drew trailing by 5, and double digits undecided a couple days before the election.

No one had Biden up by 16 nationally. And had that one poll that had Biden up 17 was an outlier. The very pollster said so.

For the most part, the polls were spot on. They correctly predicted 48 states. The margins were off, but that’s called the margin of error.

The truth is, you can’t be 100% accurate when it comes to polls.

oh come on.

The polls were terrible. Every fair minded person admits that.

[Matty]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

Ah yes, the brilliant posters who respectively had Biden up by 16 nationally, up 17 in Wisconsin, Van Drew trailing by 5, and double digits undecided a couple days before the election.

No one had Biden up by 16 nationally. And had that one poll that had Biden up 17 was an outlier. The very pollster said so.

For the most part, the polls were spot on. They correctly predicted 48 states. The margins were off, but that’s called the margin of error.

The truth is, you can’t be 100% accurate when it comes to polls.

oh come on.

The polls were terrible. Every fair minded person admits that.

Yeah polls were pretty bad, especially in swing states. Ironically, the places where polling held up the best were safe blue states + GA. The polling map was eerily similar to the Trump 2016 vs Biden 2020 map, which makes me think polls do a better job at picking up D turnout than R turnout

I just don't like the argument at all that we shouldn't compare results with polling margins, only results with polling OUTCOMES.

Under such logic, a poll showing trump +30 in Ohio is a good poll because it predicted his win.

[Matty]

Another interesting thought I saw on twitter today:

A dem win in GA on tuesday will actually increase the chances the repubs take the house in 2022, because a 51-50 senate increases chances of dems passing a law that could end up being unpopular in certain purple areas.

[Matty]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

[Matty]

Republicans are playing the expectations game. Nothing new.

that might make sense if we didn't have EV data.

you can't lie about EV data that is publically available.

[Matty]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?