Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Matty]

Is it actually true that trump has a higher approval rating that may, macron, and trudeau? Some pundit today said it in passing and I find it hard to believe.

[Matty]

Here's a question: If (big if maybe) Mueller concludes the Russia probe and doesn't implicate trump or any other associates besides what is already snagged, what would happen to his ratings?

Media would probably characterize it as "a monkey off his back", but I don't think the russia stuff is a significant driver of disapproval.

Maybe a temporary 2 point swing.

[Matty]

Trump approvals are still cruddy, but is it fair to say at this point that mueller developments aren't really affecting his polling? Neither the flynn or manafort indictments did much, and the cohen stuff looks to not be moving needle either.

[Matty]

CA-49, SurveyUSA: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-congress-polls-20180412-story.html

Approve - 46
Disapprove - 49

Clinton won this district by 9 points in 2016.

Wonder if state-level sanctuary city issues being front and center in southern California at the moment is causing wealthy, educated whites in the region, who supported trump by a much smaller margin than republicans in the past, to "rally" around him because of this issue.

[Matty]

It's because of rasmussen, but trump's rcp average is at 42.8.

Highest since april of 2017

[Matty]

Does trump still have lowest approval of any modern president at this point in the term?

[Matty]

With the Reuters/Ipsos Millennials poll and the Gallup poll, today has been a disastrous day for Democrats.

Only if Democrats are as obsessed with appearances as the criminal narccist in the White House.

If only the Democrats had something to offer besides "we're not Trump".

How much does russia pay you and why hasn’t mueller shut down your account

[Matty]

I didn’t realize reagan’s Approval ratings were kinda stinky in 82

How didn’t dems at least manage to win 2 or 3 other states in 84?

[Matty]

Trump’s rating on rcp avg is up to 43%

Not great by any means, but we are getting into territory where it is only marginally worse than some other presidents at this point in their terms

[Matty]

He’s up to 43.3 in rcp (and less than double digit upside down for first time in awhile)

What is causing this

[Matty]

I don’t think stormy stuff had much of an effect

Didn’t some polls indicate less than 30% of Americans even care about that?

[Matty]

Would pa-18 have been different if the election was now instead of month ago?

[Matty]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

[Matty]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

[Matty]

BTW, I worded my question really poorly.

When I asked "what would a national map look like if he is at 44 nationally?".....I meant what would a map of his approval/disapproval by state look like, not how an election would look.

[Matty]

Trump at 44.0 on rcp average

spread down to -8.6

It's certainly a bump, mostly driven by Monmouth and the tracking polls. Given how unstable Reuters and YouGov are and how linear Gallup tends to be, I dont expect it'll hold. But we'll definitely have to wait and see.

ya, some of it is noise.

I still think it is ironic/remarkable that his approval rating, after a year of so much drama, so many stories, indictments, laws, investigations, gaffes, etc.....is nearly identical to where it was in march 2017

It shows either the media is not very powerful at swaying public opinion or people do not care.

[Matty]

I think that North Korea might play a part in his recent rise, as well as the good economy.

Also: the Russia/Trump connection "thing" is losing steam and might be soon out people's minds.

How did Michelle Wolf say during the White House Dinner ?

"If Hillary was too incompetent to connect with Michigan voters, do you really expect Trump was smart enough to have colluded with the Russians ?"

Also, people are well aware of Trump being excentric, so the Stormy "scandal" doesn't matter in their minds either ...

Not even close.

And regarding Russia, as long as Mueller is still around there will always be the risk of the story coming back into the forefront.

I am not trying to be elitist, but when I talk about the russia stuff in public with people, most of them appear just plain ignorant or dumb about all of its ins and outs.

My aunt, bless her heart, is an independent voter and doesn't even know who george papadoupoulos is. I imagine the average american (think the average person in line at dmv or walmart) is embarrassingly uninformed about the investigation.

[Matty]

Gallup:

42 (-)
53 (+1)

Essentially noise

wasn't it 42-53 last time?

wow....rudy bombshell where he admitted a brazen lie is not registering at all?

[Matty]

It is actually 42-52, so his disapproval went down a point (noise)

I was expecting a 3-4 point negative swing because of rudy bombshell

[Matty]

It’s interesting that all it took was a slight Econ recovery for Americans to totally change minds on Reagan

[Matty]

Also, he’s at 44 among RV in the CNN poll

That’s what rcp included

[Matty]

CNN poll has 57% of Americans saying things are going well today, highest since 2007 and 10 point jump since Jan

[Matty]

I know this thread is about trump, but if the uk economy enters a bad period (it only grew .1% last quarter), how low could May’s ratings go?

She was already underwater

[Matty]

Get ready for another bump from prisoner release

[Matty]

You guys would rather bad things to happen to America if it meant his numbers would drop