$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Matty]

Mike Pence on way to Chamber.

[Matty]

Mike Pence on way to Chamber.

Now THAT is interesting. Does this mean he'll be needed for something or is he just there for emergencies?

I think it is usually tradition for VP to be there for major vote.

[Matty]

This is my first time actually watching the senate proceedings. Who are the 4 ladies sitting on that  long desk/counter in the front of the room?

[Matty]

So Heitkamp sold out?

What? It's 49 yea, 50 nay

Yeah. All 48 Dems + Collins + Murkowski.

Some Republican didn't vote...

Probably fell asleep or passed out, lol.

I would do. This is more boring than sitting at the DMV.

[Matty]

How often do bills pass both houses of congress, but then fail in conference committee?

[Matty]

Can we all agree that the senate procedures are archaic and inefficient and need to be modernized?

Do votes take this long in other countries? Christ on a cracker!

[Matty]

GOP body language looks relaxed.

[Matty]

Can’t wait for the celebration!

What losing the house?

Not everything is political. GOP is about to get through the most signifcant tax change since 1986.

[Matty]

Lots of salt in here.

I love it.

Mandate repeal, arctic drilling, and huge tax relief.

[Matty]

Castro, dragon, yank, gass......what are the chances this thing fails in conference committee

[Matty]

Castro, dragon, yank, gass......what are the chances this thing fails in conference committee

It's pretty unlikely that they fail to work something out.

If it "fails" in conference, does that mean both chambers need to revote?

[Matty]

Vox.com says this could die in conference

[Matty]

To counterpoint IndyTexas, here is a bloomberg economist arguing that the academic literature on corporate taxes reveals they do have negative effect on investment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-17/yes-a-corporate-tax-cut-would-increase-investment

Recent dartmouth study.

http://faculty.tuck.dartmouth.edu/images/uploads/faculty/jonathan-lewellen/Investment_and_cashflow.pdf

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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2895161

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[Matty]

I noticed that Pence cast a tie-breaking vote for Cruz's amendment. What does Cruz's amendment do?

It extends 529 savings accounts, which parents use to save money for college, to k-12 expenses as well.

[Matty]

Uh oh, collins refuses to say she will support final bill. Says she has to wait and see.

wow, is she changing her mind?

[Matty]

To make things simple I am now just rooting for House to pass this bill as it and call it  a day.  A great policy victory. GOP will get hammered in 2018 but it is worth it from my point of view.  The short term stimulus would mean that Trump will head into 2020 with a solid record of economic growth and could even win re-election which would delay another 4 years from Dems trying to reverse some of this.

In what ways are huge deficit spending and further decreasing revenue thereby incurring more deficit spending a victory? This bill is sure to do that and to make the math work you need to do cuts. Republicans won't cut or streamline discretionary but will only cut non-discretionary items like SS, Medicare, and Medicaid. Those programs could remain solvent with simple fixes, not decimation.

Also, Jaichind, you DO realize the OVERWHELMING consensus of economists (outside the White House of course) are of the resolute opinion this will do little to nothing to foster greater private sector growth? Corporations are ALREADY running with record level profits, and the economy's big weakness is lack of wage growth and money being put in the middle class's hands, for which this tax bill does little to nothing.

A recent survey of 40 top economists, including conservatives, were polled as to whether this tax cut is likely to notably spur economic growth. 39 out of 40 said "no"!

But hey, you're getting your beak wet, so FTW. Amarite? It's the Jaichind way.

Hmmm.  Sorry it seems I did not do a good job communicating what I meant.  I totally agree that the long term impact of this tax plan is mixed and the jury will be out for a while on that. What I meant about the short term stimulus in the Senate plan are the a)  immediate implementation of temporary full expensing and b)  one-time low tax rate on overseas profits will lead to a surge of investments and expatriation of foreign based profits will lead to the surge of business spending in 2018 and in turn jazz up the economy in 2019 and just in time for Trump's re-election in 2020.

Perhaps I didn't do a good job communicating what I meant.  While I am sure you are happy as to how this affects your extremely wealthy families bottom line, let me repeat.

An. Overwhelming. Consensus. Among. Economists. Is. This. Bill. Will. Do. Little. To. Spur. Economic. Growth!!

Analysis from the CBO and the JCT (as well as private, less reliable companies like goldman sachs), find that it will indeed spur some growth, just not enough to cover the deficits it creates.

The academic literature is clear that corporate taxes in excess have negative consequences. Economists generally dislike the corporate tax, anyway.

But, I think the issue goes deeper: I out of principle believe families should keep more of their money, and this bill provides at least some relief. Most middle class families will see around 1500-2500 in savings.

[Matty]

Does the senate vote for a conference committee as well?