Senate election in Kentucky

[Joshgreen]

This will be McConnell's toughest race. His approval ratings have never been this low.

[Joshgreen]

Here's the psephological deep-dive from Trende.

I appreciate those articles, etc, but that was written 7 months ago. McConnell is favored, for now, but he's in the most danger he's ever been. Ironically, I would say partly because he's in leadership.

[Joshgreen]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

You have no evidence of this...

[Joshgreen]

They would vote for McConnell over Grimes.

But they won't vote.

[Joshgreen]

They would vote for McConnell over Grimes.

But they won't vote.

What makes you say that?

The Tea Party types are enraged with McConnell who is THE Republican Establishment.

[Joshgreen]

The Tea Party-Establishment distinction is a fiction invented by Republicans.

Except the rube voters believe it which is all that matters.