2020 New York Redistricting

[henster]

If Dems get a favorable ruling the key is party unity in the legislature in getting 2/3's to reject four different maps so they can draw their own. I'm not too confident in that happening tbh, I could see the IRC submitting a map that moves most of the swing seats to the left a bit and Dems accepting it.

[henster]

The 2% rule is the biggest hurdle for Dems here. Yes they can repeal it but it increases the odds of a GOP lawsuit succeeding because they'd definitely have a case of partisan intent from Dems. I think Dems biggest priority should be maps that boost Dems and is least vulnerable to lawsuit.

[henster]

The 2% rule is the biggest hurdle for Dems here.

What is this 2% rule? Whatever it is, if it is a problem, then I would think the supermajority legislature should simply change it.

If the legislature wants to modify the commission plan, it can't deviate more than 2% pop. for any given district.

But Democrats can always reject the first map, and then the second map, and then pass their own if they have a 2/3rd majority.

The 2% rule is only statutory and not included in the original constitutional amendment so it can be repealed easily. The problem is the constitution prohibits partisan intent in redistricting, so the case could be made that repealing the rule to draw more favorable maps is partisan intent. Dems could adjust the rule from 2 to say 5 or 10% rather than repealing it or just follow the rule and shift what seats they can 2% to the left.

[henster]

Apparently the Senate wants to go the more aggressive route and the Assembly wants to adhere to the 2% rule. Seems some Dems are well aware of any legal repercussions that could occur. It'll be interesting to see how much influence Jeffries really has here and how much influence congressional leaders really have over state redistricting in general.

[henster]

No way would they be looking to change the law on where redistricting cases could be held just to go the 2% route.

IMO all this legislation should've been passed months ago especially the 2% rule. If Dems had simply repealed the rule last year the threat of legal action wouldn't be as high as opposed to repealing it right as they pass a new map. From what I've seen everyone involved just seems kind of flat footed rather than cunning so I wouldn't be surprised if Dems fumbled all of this.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

Felder is an orthodox Jew and very pro-Israel he just voted for the IRC maps today being the only Dem to do so. I'd say there is a lot of work to be done to get him in the fold.