Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[henster]

She already conceded he gave a victory speech lol!

[henster]

Is Katie Porter too far behind?

[henster]

Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections.

[henster]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump.

[henster]

Is Jared Golden basically heavily favored at this point, how much would he have to be trailing by before RCV for things to get dicey?

[henster]

Maricopa is dropping at 5 right?

[henster]

I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day?

[henster]

How many votes are there left in Broward?

[henster]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

[henster]

This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

[henster]

I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit.

[henster]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

[henster]

Would be hilarious if Kim ended up losing, I've seen countless tweets congratulating her for being the first Korean women to be elected in Congress even one saying she was the first Asian women lol. Usual whining from cons 'why is the media ignoring her!!'.

[henster]

Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

It has already been discussed to dead.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So theoretically would R+10 or R+12 be enough for Sinema to lose at this point?

[henster]

50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061407567220420608

[henster]

The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.

[henster]

The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.

Thats fine, but this batch had early votes returned on election day and it still went for Sinema by 3 points.

The batch today went for her by 7 points.

[henster]

Sunday is McSally's last chance.

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1061409727656058881

[henster]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

[henster]

Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A.

[henster]

Thinking about AZ. If today was a mixture of batch A and B. And Batch A had party ID even and it's been Sinema +15 or so and batch B is supposedly R+10 in party ID. Today's batch was Sinema +7, so assuming batch A mixed in was again Sinema +15 what would've batch B been for it to end up at +7 overall?