New PA Maps In Effect

[henster]

Oral arguments began in the state Supreme Court on the constitutionaly of the state's constitutional maps and whether they are a partisan gerrymander.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pa-gerrymandering-republicans-partisan-fair-elections-20180117.html

Nate Cohn also presented some potential fair maps that could be drawn.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/17/upshot/pennsylvania-gerrymandering.html?_r=0

[henster]

I'm just going to post my response from the last PA thread, which was in responce to a DKE map. I will post analysis afterwards.

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In response to two other things here - Erie and Allegheny. A Erie based seat that slid down the western boarder of PA was R+1 in 2008, when Obama barely won it. Since then, the counties south of Erie moved right at light speed - even before Trump. In 2016, Erie caught up with the neighbours. At best right now - R+6. At worst - R+10.

Allegheny meanwhile is forced under a fair map into a dem pack. The prime reason is simple - the county lacks the pop and needs to grab a neighbour if it wants a second seat. However all the bordering counties are Titanium R. So, in order to get a seat that is at least competative, the Allegheny part needs to be very dem - no? The only way such a cut comes about is if the map is a full on dem gerrymander, and Pittsburgh is used to pack not only the Republican leaning suburbs to the north, but also more mixed ares to the west. Best a fair map could do around here is R+6, however I tend to prefer not having a second Allegheny seat in my maps to minimize cuts elsewhere.

I'm also skeptical of Cohns map largely because he cuts the Lackawanna+Luzure+Monroe pairing. That district is 100% perfect, not needing cuts to any other counties. It is entirely made up of Union/WWC small towns in the Northeast corner. It is a perfect community of interest. Why the hell would ya cut it?

Overall, the average new PA map sees: 1 dem gain in delaware, the Chester and Bucks seats remain competitive, and Allentown becomes more competitive. Its hard to see dems ever gain a majority here, unless they win loaner seats in central PA that are currently open.


Something else that should be said is that a entirely separate case on PAs congressional maps was thrown out by the District court last week. Whether this was simply more conservative judges, or an understanding that this case, and the Wisconsin case before the supreme court made that one redundant, is a question that I don't know the answer to.

The District Court was a federal case and this one is a state case. The whole basis is that the map violates the state constitution.

[henster]

The court will throw it to the legislature and Wolf will veto maps and the court will end up drawing the maps.

[henster]

Hopefully Wolf holds strong and vetos any plan coming from the lege and allow the courts to draw the map.

[henster]

If the legislature is smart, they'll craft a compromise with Wolf that sacrifices some districts to Ds and swing status, gives incumbents some predictability, and avoids the courts throwing the doors wide open to a radically redrawn new map.

If Ds are smart they take their chances with the 5-2 Dem court drawing the maps.

[henster]

Four justices needed to stay and we have three partisan hacks (Gorsuck, Alito,Thomas) on the court maybe Kennedy and Roberts throw the GOP a line here. But if they didn't rule on FL in 2015 why now unless they are throwing precedent completely out the window here..

[henster]

I think the odds SCOTUS grants stay is 50/50, too many activist judges on the court now. Wouldn't be surprised if Gorsuck had a direct line to Ryan/McConnell.

[henster]

Alito handles emergency appeals for PA and he only needs three other justices to stay. We know Gorsuch and Thomas would be on board the wildcards are Kennedy and Thomas.

[henster]

Supreme Court signals it might block Pennsylvania ruling against partisan gerrymandering

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Alito is such a POS...

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-essential-washington-updates-supreme-court-signals-it-might-block-1517265413-htmlstory.html

States rights go out the window whenever it interferes with the GOP agenda.

[henster]

It may have its faults, but it's still far better than the map produced by the PA GOP. At the minimum, there should be some territory swapped between the successors of PA-05 and PA-09 to make them somewhat more compact.

Thats not saying much - ~90% of maps are better than both the previous map and the one the legislature just drew. So far: I have yet to see a map that tops the one I previously drew:

This is by far the best map, I really hope The Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopts something similar to this.

Why don’t you submit this to the court?

[henster]

Why don’t you submit this to the court?

I don't think you can - if I could I would. best I could do was the special master.

Stephen Wolf submitted a map I assume anybody can.

[henster]

ACLU submitted a map too.

[henster]

The League of Women Voters maps that is apparently a 9-9 partisan split.

https://www.pubintlaw.org/cases-and-projects/petitioners-propose-constitutional-maps-to-pennsylvania-supreme-court/

[henster]

Interactive maps for all of the proposals compiled here.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/compare-pa-congressional-map-proposals-fix-gerrymander.html

[henster]

Has anybody tried DMing persily on twitter with these maps?

[henster]

Siren --->

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/971818952253833216

Wasn't the date set to 3/9/2018?

There is a federal trial with argument slated to begin tomorrow and a request for a SCOTUS stay so two different lawsuits in two different courts. Maybe Alito is waiting for the lower court to make a ruling or he's referred it to the entire court.

[henster]

SCOTUS stay has been denied.

[henster]

Costello probably retires tonight.