UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

Plot twist.

Government sent a text to journalists at 1.30am saying it was a confidence issue but No.10 had mistakenly told the Minister to say it wasn’t.

Claiming they‘ll discipline those who abstained (rumours it’s around 16 out of 40- others were paired) but I mean it’s all a joke already.

Imagine if your boss invited you to a meeting, uninvited you, and then your line manager quits as you walk into the meeting, so you leave only to get you were needed.

[Blair]

Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

Yes. They've been in power for twelve years and the decision-making of long-term governments in the UK at the equivalent point in their terms has just been getting worse and worse for decades.

Like young children returning to school the Conservative 2019 intake didn’t really learn how to behave, or interact normally- they’re also very stupid.

You have some shameless MPs from the older intake backing Boris but the bulk are the very right wing lot who won in 2019- was the most ideological and weirdest intakes since Labours 2005 one.

[Blair]

Being briefed that a Boris led party could vote to axe the party gate inquiry; for non-UK posters this is this a special select committee investigating whether he lied in the Commons. The commons voted for it earlier this year- including the Conservative MPs.

Forcing a vote on ending the committee would be a very quick and easy way of forcing tory MPs to vote on the mans character and to essentially force a split in the party- can you find 36 Tory MPs willing to vote to keep it? Probably!

Surely the sensible thing is to wait for it to conclude, and then amend the suspension to less than 10 days- which avoids a recall election* and allows him to apologise? This is ofc what they could have done with Paterson but they felt the need to go much further.


*The banter outcome is that he gets recalled, tries to swap seats and ends up losing a by-election in a seat with a 20,000 majority.

[Blair]

A very strange trend that Brexit bought on is the reporting and well actual caring about what people like Chope, Bill Cash and other ancient right wing backbenchers think.

The same ofc with Dorries but that’s what happens when you promote someone- they forever become ‘senior conservative MP’.

On the Iron Mayden I always have respect for Ministers who are diligent constituency MPs- it greatly improves your work as a politician and gives you a much better understanding of politics even in most shire seats.

[Blair]

You doom if you want, the Lady is not for dooming.

[Blair]

A strange cabinet so far-lots being briefed about adults in charge but the people returning aren’t exactly big hitters. I mean Dowden and Stride are hardly dynamic!

This was his best chance to get a good cabinet in as sweeping reshuffles are always hard mid turn.

Astute move putting Braverman back at the Home Office. No voters will be exercised over this other than those who will never vote Tory anyway; it mollifies the right; and forces Braverman to take ownership over and responsibility for immigration policy as opposed to sniping from the backbench.

However between her and Raab it would help the Government if they had someone who could tackle crime- it’s strange it’s not had as much cut through or blowback for the Government considering how bad the justice system is.

I think in London the Met being so awful has helped deflect.

[Blair]

PM knew the game and didn’t play it.

[Blair]

Buckland pays the price

Added indignity of being replaced by a certifiable moron.

A sign of how shocked I was was that I assumed it was a typo and it was actually the English 72 year old David Davis who was being appointed to Welsh Sec.

[Blair]

A good appointment- he was one of the biggest cheerleaders for DFID and has generally been quite good on foreign policy- Whitehall would do well if more people like him were willing to come back for lower profile jobs.

https://twitter.com/10downingstreet/status/1584990717931245569

[Blair]

Also this cabinet seems rather heavy on egos doesn’t it?

It’s going to a great time for hacks…

[Blair]

Very funny when someone from the media gets appointed to a No.10 role- the whole lobby and wider media class say how it’s a ‘big hire’ and shows how ‘serious’ the new operation is.

I hadn’t heard of the person who has been hired but apparently they’re senior at ITV…

One of the most corrosive beliefs on both sides in Westminster is that simply having a ‘genius’ in charge of your communications fixes everything- you often hear certain types in Labour saying we need a return to someone like Alastair Campbell or equally those who claimed Corbyn just needed a better media adviser.

The weird thing is that even under Starmer I doubt many people outside the traditional hunting pool (the NS, the Mirror, the Guardian etc) in the lobby would ever consider working for Labour.

[Blair]

A batsh**t session in Parliament as Tory MPs are somehow claiming our asylum laws are too weak.

The laws were ofc only changed in the last year by the Government.

The danger of Rwanda is that it won’t work and that means they’ll have to look at even worse options after it fails because they’ve whipped up their own side.

[Blair]

Braverman has just accused New Labour of having an open borders policy and doing nothing to stop illegal migration.

This will be news to a lot of migrant rights activists and the various hardline New Labour Home Secretaries…

[Blair]

A former Health Secretary is appearing on I’m a celebrity.. no prizes for guessing who.

[Blair]

With the mid-terms coming up did anyone see the hilarious take on Twitter.com about how the US democrats would somehow dominate UK Politics?

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics, or more hilariously UK politicos going over to the US*- a lib dem by-election team would cause carnage.


*Fun fact- it was a British TU official who helped get the Romney 47% comment tape out there...

[Blair]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

In the case of Axelrod he certainly wasn’t involved in the day to day at all- he offered some vague advice around messaging!

[Blair]

J****n W**B of Radio 4 form fame has a rather hilariously awful about the midterms where he somehow gets two mentions in about trans rights (basically complaining the Democrats did too well and won’t now argue about these issues affecting them).

Has he always been like this?

 I’ve always hated him on Radio 4- I remember him lambasting Rachel Reeves for not supporting a domestic tax cut on short haul flights under the claim ‘well working class families fly to Scotland don’t they?- she reminded him not many of her constituents in Leeds would be spending £350 quid on flights.

[Blair]

Obviously not the most important part of the services today - but 7 ex-PMs were present at the Cenotaph today, for the first time ever. It's going to be strange seeing Truss at all these national events for the next 40 years.

Very strange to think we could easily have 9 former prime Ministers living if both Sunak & Starmer are out of office in the next decade.

[Blair]

There’s been some grumbling about Blackford for a while iirc.

[Blair]

Budget seems to have gone pretty badly based on overnight coverage and what I heard on the news.

It’s funny how parts of Westminster always seem to lavish praise on the day of the budget and then once they read it things fall apart.

It is partly tyranny of low expectations after the Truss one…

[Blair]

Mutterings about a u-turn on the onshore wind ban.

Cabinet ministers are briefing they actually support it and the PM should U-turn. Oh dear.

[Blair]

I keep forgetting about the changes; Kingswood was also one of the Blair era Labour seats that would be expected to come back into play on the current polling.

The reason we’re seeing retirements is because Tories have to announce by 4th December if they’re restanding but ofc some will retire anyway after saying they won’t.

[Blair]

The Mail are running a second day of front pages attack on Labour over its policy to tax private schools  - for non U.K. posters the schools are exempt from VAT and also get charitable status. Labour policy is to tax them and use this funding for state schools.

It’s a bit strange as the policy is popular and Labour have been vocal about supporting it; Jeremy Hunt threw some dubious figures out about it during the budget so suggests it’s planned by the Tories will is actually more hilarious.

Maybe I’m just in a bubble (no-one I knew when I was young could afford it- even people like me who had one parent on an above average professional income) but private schools really aren’t as accessible as they were in the 90s and the state sector broadly isn’t bad enough to force people to send their kids private.

The only people who seem to care are those parents with kids in private schools or those working in the sector.

[Blair]

On an aside as awful as Eton, Dulwich, Winchester are, the really corrosive issue is how poor a lot of the private schools are and how they charge £13,000 for a pretty average education with cello lessons added on.

 

[Blair]

Sadie clearly had more of a spine than most Conservative MPs but I struggle to see what his legacy will be- maybe it’s because he was never in a post for long enough but he held about 15 cabinet jobs and I struggle to think of a policy area he really changed.