UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

Why is everyone briefing that the next election is going to be like 1992?

[Blair]

Isn't it extremely unusual(to the point of being unheard off) for a minister to be fired before they've been offered a chance to resign ?

It’s not that uncommon- especially on something like this.

[Blair]

His resignation letter was hilariously catty- no apology and a dig at the media.

To think he was once being floated as the next leader.

[Blair]

I use to be sceptical of it but I think the stories around scandals has really damaged them- the polling collapsed for the Tories before the cost of living crisis really hit.

[Blair]

William Hague had a very good article and I think others have said it’s a mistake to see everything as either 1992 or 1997- the result could easily fall in the middle and is broadly what I expect.

[Blair]

Im very very confused why there’s talk of Truss relaunching some weird backbench group of 50 MPs.

Do they really not remember what she did to their opinion polling and how awful she was? I was believed she needed to stay in post for much longer purely so the party could actually get it into their thick skull how awful her project was.

[Blair]

My favourite throwback from him was his months long tirade against Keir Starmer calling Boris a liar

He voted for Boris Johnson as Mayor. Twice! In a system that made it very easy to protest vote.

I don't know why the I keep him on when the rest of their politics team is actually very sharp

[Blair]

Reports Truss wants to do a Heath and become Leader of the Opposition.

On an aside its funny how in the recent discussions of post Prime Ministerial life Heath and his errrr financial dealings are never mentioned are they?

[Blair]

Sunak has proved to be crapper than expected (didn't have high expectations to begin with) but surely he's still the best candidate they have? I'm sure he'll get plenty of grief after the local elections but I think the lack of any alternative will keep him in place until the next election.

And the fact Truss is already attempting a comeback is beyond any description, just absurd.

Yes they haven't realised that while Sunak is not the political gold they once thought he is not the reason they're going to get doors slammed on their face in the locals.

It would very much be like if Labour had made Jack Straw PM in 2009- the issue was and would continue to be the economy and the fact the Governing party looked clapped out and hopeless.

[Blair]

The irony ofc is that there's very little discussion either from her or her allies, or even some of her critics that she was the reason it went so awfully- she was a terrible public speaker, someone with absolutely no public presence & absolutely no political judgement beyond an ability to win over Conservative Members.*

It's forgotten that the reason she had so many issues was because she refused to try and build any sort of unity with Sunak or his supporters; I would note Sunak has appointed some of her allies to posts and it has broadly been a happier ship!

I can guarantee that any other post war PM would have handled the Queens Death in a way that would have gotten some mention; she just came across as deeply strange and out of her depth. It was telling that in the Commons not only did Keir & Boris deliver much better speeches but so did many backbenchers including Theresa May.

She was the product of Conservative MPs & Conservative members talking among themselves; much more so than Labour members ever do! For all the criticisms of Corbyn we did not try and replace him with Richard Burgon while insisting Jeremy was too right wing.

While the mini-budget did a lot of damage people forget it was the farcical fracking vote that actually ended things; for a Government with a majority of 70 to march itself over a mine-field & then change its mind half way while the officers fight each other was really a fitting end for her regime.

I have spent a lot of time trying to work out why Truss is even getting discussed; everyone knows it was a disaster and its telling there isn't even the usual post prime ministerial debate you see with others where soft partisans try and balance out varying factors (Thatcher on the unions, Blair on Iraq, Cameron on the economy)

Truss is a prime ministerial leper to quote Wilson, yet she seems completely unaware of it.

*Even the canary in the coal mine looking back was the challenge Truss faced in getting to the final round; she only beat Penny to the final round after a very vicious briefing war against her & there are ofc still a lot of people who believe votes were lend to get Truss in the final round.

[Blair]

There’s some chat about the Toad/Mr Blobby returning but he still has the highly damaging partygate hearings- which will be in public and which might lead to a vote about sanctioning him.

If there were 100 MPs backing him in Autumn you’d still need to find another 70 who would vote to get rid of Sunak in a no-confidence ballot and some of those 100 wouldn’t be safe anti Sunak votes.

I wouldn’t put it past them to panic but expect it to end up like the panics to remove Gordon in 09/10.

[Blair]

I think with Raab they’re waiting for the report and will do this reshuffle in a way that allows them to possibly replace him without having to re-arrange the deck.

Greg Hands rumoured to be party chair which makes sense as he regularly tweets out the various CCHQ graphics which is imo the job of party chair.

Amanda Milling was my favourite- she was particularly miserable doing it and made a very laughable intervention that ‘Sir Keir must prove he is strong and opposed to racism and sack Jeremy’ about 10 minutes before he did- never set a test your opponent can meet use to be basic. How standards have slipped…

[Blair]

Tories have briefed quite an hilarious piece about crime being higher in labour controlled areas which errr ignores who has been in power since 2010.

They’re really struggling over what their actual attack on Labour will be- currently a mix of Corbyn and not knowing what a women is- so good to see they’re v online!

[Blair]

Well there goes any coverage of Corbyn!

There was an interesting article in the Sundays re sturgeons successor Kate Forbes

[Blair]

It must be said she was one of the most successful and skilled politicians we’ve seen over the past 20 years; she was aided ofc by outside factors but it’s really only been in the last 12 months when the wheels have came off and her operation has looked shabby.

[Blair]

The argument that Scottish Labour lost because it was insufficiently leftist is undermined by the fact that the SNP isn't either. Scottish Labour lost in 2011 because it was hideously, hilariously incompetent, it lost in 2015 because it was incompetent and unpopular and it's still losing because it's still not viewed as competent, even when the point of comparison is the SNP.

It's incompetence was built in before that as was it's decline. It was just masked by effective leaders (like Dewar) and nationally driven GE rallies (1987 and 1997) that rose all boats.

It's party machine, campaign style, focus and a swathe of it's MSP's were ripped straight from the local council play book and it was ill suited to what the Parliament could do and what it's supporters wanted.

A mistake Welsh Labour (the model of national consciousness the SNP most, underrated-ly, models itself after) never made.

I did have a big effortpost about this somewhere but can't find it.

I’d be very interested in reading it- it’s equally criminal how few people in U.K. labour understand why Welsh Labour has been so effective.

[Blair]

Do they think this will be easier after the local elections??

[Blair]

A good way to consume news is to ignore columnists like this.

There’s two good types of journalists; those who understand elections and data, and those who understand one of the main parties. The rest just tend to be people who do paper reviews.

[Blair]

I'm very confused why Conservative MPs wanted to talk about Sue Gray in Parliament today. It seemed to be made up largely of the Boris Brigade with some of the serious concerns crew.

[Blair]

I'm very confused why Conservative MPs wanted to talk about Sue Gray in Parliament today. It seemed to be made up largely of the Boris Brigade with some of the serious concerns crew.

Because she is an easy target.

The head of the civil service who helped oust a Conservative PM officially joining the Labour opposition ?
A political gift for the Boris fans, who now can credibly say that she made it up to help Labour.

She is not head of the civil service.

[Blair]

The weird thing is they did this last year with another bill which they eventually forced through and there’s a v good chance we’ll end up next year in the same position; until you fix the Home Office and tackle the global factors (something that is hard to do in a year) it’s difficult to see how the numbers fall.

[Blair]

I don’t think the BBC realise how quickly they’re burning their political capital for people who never liked them to begin with.

[Blair]

It did seem strange considering that a lot of the BBCs other environmental & rural programs have been quite political for the last 3-4 years- Countryfile specifically around farming issues.

[Blair]

What an awful day for policing.

One of the most damning reports about policing.

https://news.sky.com/story/rape-cases-dropped-by-met-police-due-to-broken-freezer-casey-review-hears-12839117

[Blair]

Yeah the ‘inner city’ Labour seats whether in Manchester, London, Birmingham have a strong enough margin with voters the greens struggle to win; namely BAME and those living in social housing or some form.

Much like with Brighton the greens might actually need a seat that is already relatively marginal and where they can come up the middle- I would not be shocked if their first pick up is actually a Conservative seat.