2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Blair]

for any FL Posters or people in the loop...

1.) What's the likelyhood of either Trump or Biden winning a big (more than 5% chunk) of the opposition parties vote?

2.) Do we know from polling how NPAs will vote?

[Blair]

Can this be pinned to any posts about Florida- the best I've read for months on it.

Steve Schale's blog post on Florida if anyone is interested

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321125538849763330?s=20

[Blair]

I feel like I'm venting because of the politico article here but even I'm getting sick of the constant briefing from South Florida Democratic officals who seem to forget that they have power & agency of this!

While the Texas Democratic Party has been phone-banking what something like 2+ million voters all the Miami-Dade elected officals seem to do is bitch about not being allowled to door knock in a pandemic. I just get annoyed when there's so many good state parties out there who just seem to get on with the work even when theye're losing.

[Blair]

I should preface this by saying I'm not an expert on Florida Politics but the two things that seems to be ignored is...

1.) The polling shows a huge shift among 65+ voters. I don't know how this shows up in the early vote ID (are these registered republicans or NPA 65+ voters who are flipping?)

2.) The number of independents/NPA or registered republicans who are voting for Biden; I feel like there could be such an intense focus on Florida hispanics that people ignore the rest of the state.

On the final point it does seem to generally be a flaw for any state party which will only win if they can turn out an electorate where part of it is extremely political engaged & fickle (Cuban-Americans) & where the other part is harder to turn out (non Cuban-hispanics)

It seems like a complete repeat of 2016 where the entire Clinton operation & the whole of Atlas/Political twitter focused on the large swings in Miami-Dade but ignored the even larger swings among independent & white voters outside of Miami-Dade.

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

[Blair]

Apologies if already posted but gives a good run down as always of Florida.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1322976446210576386

[Blair]

Those Florida numbers don't look too awful do they? Especially if there's still some more to trickle in tomorrow?