UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

No photo-op of BoJo with the Lionesses yet? That's not really like him......

He has been quite open about not liking football in the past which is much better than pretending to like it but equally makes it somehow worse he didn’t go and that he’s made no effort for a reception etc.

[Blair]

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.

Surely it has to be ‘this is a disgrace’

[Blair]

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?

If the Tories lose their majority, and lack enough DUP votes to form a stable majority, Starmer is likely safe, regardless of the size of the Labour recovery:

• Inter-party negotiations on government formation, where Starmer's moderate tendencies make collaboration with the Lib Dems more plausible, and his electoral performance allows him to claim something of a mandate (will be fun to see the two Labour factions switch arguments from 2017 on this topic).
• A probable second election, arising from the incumbent government collapsing around a Queen's Speech or controversial legislation, particularly if the Conservatives try to limp on as a minority government.

Basically, if the Conservatives get under 305 seats, Starmer is ok - if they get any more than 320, he's likely screwed. A Tory majority of any size, even one challenged by a 250-260 Labour opposition (powered by a miraculous Scottish and Northern recovery), would be probably be sufficient for him to lose his job. MPs will praise his role in the party's recovery, but the memory of Kinnock and Corbyn's second attempts at an election (and the ambition of rival MPs) will probably be too strong to allow him to go on.

His age is also likely to be a factor- I think there was a time where this result might just about let him stay on for a year or two and pick his successor but a combination of partygate, the economic crisis & backlog britain will mean it would be seen as an election that he should have won.

[Blair]

Some briefing re Truss’s cabinet.

Kwarteng seems set for the Chancellorship- can’t think he’ll be good at the soft stuff. He’s not a great media performer and gives off strong supply teacher energy when dough media rounds.

Braverman for Home Sec- for people who worry Priti Patel is too effective. Would be a stupidly bad choice- she has struggled in the non job of Attorney General and reminds me of when Jacqui Smith was appointed. We know how that ended.

Various positions floated for Terese Coffey- she is Truss’s best friend in Parliament and imo should be Home Sec! Expect cabinet office/deputy PM or something similar.

Rumours of tugendhat for FCO- I wonder if she’ll give him something like Trade as it would be a big step forward.

Would be shocked if Rishi takes anything- only job he could move to would be FCO.

[Blair]

Yeah Patel has some of the worse ratings of any frontline politician- something like -47%.

A large reason is that the first piece of news people associated with her was the very messy falling out around the investigation into bullying- which lead to the resignations of an ethics adviser & the chief civil service in the Home Office.

Add on the disaster of the Ukraine Refugee Scheme (I believe this caused a lot of issues for the Tories among their Waitrose types!)

It's really not a surprise that she didn't run when it was clear she was going to struggle to have enough MPs for a respectable showing- imho by the end she wouldn't have had enough nominations to get on the ballot.

[Blair]

A Truss Government does mean the likely end of my dream for Gove to become either Chancellor or Home Secretary.

If he did it would be a fascinating insight into how the two biggest & most troublesome departments could actually get whipped into shape.

[Blair]

There was a very good program on Channel 4 about partition last night.

I don’t know what is more damning; how it’s largely airbrushed out of discussion in British politics or how it’s airbrushed out of discussion about the Attlee Government.

[Blair]

Truss sticking to the "no handouts when I become PM" line, despite increasingly desperate attempts by some suckers supporters to claim she is being "misinterpreted".

When there are mass deaths from cold/starvation and serious social unrest, what then?

I don’t think it’s really dawned on them either how piecemeal these tax cuts will be- and in my case will be cancelled out I imagine by my student loan interest rates.

Let alone not helping those on low pay etc- will be a grim time for civil servants having to explain this. 

[Blair]

I’m very boring but it’s v interesting seeing how even politically engaged people seem to be angry that Bojo isn’t doing anything re the cost of living- he obviously isn’t going to make any fiscal commitments and does anyone really think him appearing on TV would help!

Besides I’m not sure what PM Raab would be doing?

The obvious answer is that the Tories should have got rid a lot earlier or made the contest shorter…

[Blair]

Briefing overnight about the next cabinet- Braverman as Home Secretary, Deadwood returning to Government after 30 years and Rees Mogg at levelling up are actual lols. Are they trying to lose the next election?

I loved that it was briefed that Braverman could bring her legal expertise to the small boats challenge- which in itself is deeply hilarious.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1561067520932675584

[Blair]

Tory MPs once again getting themselves caught in a storm of sh**t over sewage being pumped into the sea.

It's seen a large number of beaches closed in the middle of the holidays & they voted against an amendment that would have banned this last year- it got them into a lot of trouble then.

As a member of the Labour right it is hilarious to see the 'actual the amendment we voted for superseded the non-binding amendment we amended on the programme motion' argument- it won't work!

[Blair]

All things considered they're still pretty weak numbers of an incumbent PM!

But yes it's partly a reason why I wonder if it would have been better for the party if he lost an election- Thatcher not losing in 1992 (as she imo would have) caused 20 years of problems.

Despite the public utterances elite opinion within the party about Johnson had shifted after the local elections & by-elections about Johnson- this certainly filtered through the lower ranks of the party (local councillors are often the canaries in the coalmine and they were broadly furious with Johnson)

The one thing I will say is that while Johnson was hated by the vast majority of public he does have an ability & affinity to re-brand himself and make life hard for Labour- he had dug himself in such a deep hole that it was broadly impossible post partygate but there's a reason people were insisting on the day he resigned that he wasn't actually going to quit & it was all a magic trick!

[Blair]

The particularly hilarious thing is that so much of the coverage was about how he had re-created British politics and the dividing lines between the parties- the squatting toad comment as an example after his rather rambling conference speech in 2021.

You would have thought they would have learnt after May in early 2017 & the talk of her serving for 10 years. At least Truss will not be entering into office with these expectations.

The one thing he could have had a legacy on was around planning reform- the original proposals would have killed the post 1947 legacy of planning and would have seen a very very different approach.

Although he made the mistake of putting an overzealous idiot in charge of the efforts & ironically the minister responsible in parliament for planning was a Mr Christopher Pincher.

[Blair]

I’m not the target audience but I listened to a small part of the new LBC/Global Podcast which has Emily Maitlis, John Sopel and Lewis Goodall- all ex BBC presenters.

It seemed very strange and the type of program for people who follow the politics but don’t follow it closely. I had hoped it would be more of a podcast about the news itself (e.g how the British media works etc etc) but it was just them interviewing the Mooch and talking about the US- is nothing happening in the U.K??

[Blair]

Surprised no-one has made the joke that someone with Boris' record is actually quite suitable for the Met in 2022.

[Blair]

Reports that Truss is going to take an axe to workers rights, including around the 48 hour limit.

This is very strange as Johnson's Government floated this in late 2021 and the coverage was so bad it was killed within 48 hours. Absolute madness and sends the wrong signal- but what does she expect if she puts someone like Rees-Mogg in BEIS?

Would be utter madness.

[Blair]

Hilarious that she’s made a cabinet that could easily be ‘list people who should be sacked from the current one’.

Again why is Braverman in the cabinet?

She has struggled as Attorney General which in itself is a non-job. She did not win a seizable number of MPs in the contest and she is not good on the TV, nor in the Commons. No-one in the party is even calling for it!

She is being given the hardest Government job at a time when there’s at least four issues that could bring her down (passport delays, Rwanda, Ukraine refugees, crime) and it would be a huge red flag. Surely just give it to someone like Brandon Lewis, IDS or someone similar?