2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Blair]

Also allows the Democrats to spend two years running ‘she’s a loser’ ‘she cheated her way into D.C’ ‘McSallys best friend Mitch McConelll gave her a seat’ etc before we even get to the election- adds another soft target to hit- and beyond better funding and some soft promo I can’t see what a senate seat gives her

[Blair]

Woods is the person you run when you have absolutely no bench in a state but there's a host of democrats who could run. The reality that people forget is that some voters vote on ideological lines, and do so against moderates.

I'm not opposed to Woods because he's a republican- but rather because I don't think he's the most inspiring choice, and I don't think he'd stand up against the vested interests that the Democrats need to be fighting against.

[Blair]

FWIW Kelly's group no doubt endorsed Toomey because he sponsored Manchin-Toomey

[Blair]

Hey I know it goes against a fine Atlas tradition, but can't we accept that both Kelly and Gallegeo are A-list candidates, and that a healthy, and competitive primary will test both their messages, campaigns and abilities as politicians?

[Blair]

Surely it will be on Gallego mind that if he doesn't run his only chance would be a run for Governor in 2022- as both these Senate seats could be tied up for years now.

[Blair]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

[Blair]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

[Blair]

Trump advisers warn McSally is in trouble, sounded alarm to McConnell today in White House

How can she lose when she's got both a fighter pilot necklace and an Arizona facemask?

[Blair]

There's a funny piece of revionism about the appointment being done for Ducey to win in 2022 but that ignores the fact that if he wanted a placeholder he could have appointed someone from his staff or some hack from the local party. He then easily could have either ran in the 2020 special election or in 2024 against Sinema.

Besides it wasn't assumed that McSally would lose this race; Kelly wasn't known to be running when she was appointed & although she ran a poor campaign it wasn't this awful. If he really wanted someone to lose the seat he could have appointed someone much worse like Ward

McSally was appointed because she was seen as the strongest choice & because they hoped she could use her Senate seat to save this race in 2020.

[Blair]

lol

McSally campaign ad confuses Mark Kelly with twin brother

This ad also makes no sense considering that Mark Kelly is *checks notes* a fighter pilot

[Blair]

A lot of this current republican crop got to play politics on the easy settings; depressed democratic turnout, a massive cash advantage (both direct dollars & dark money) & the easy punching bag of Obamacare.

You could say the same for the current democratic bench; tons of money, historically unpopular president & easy punching bag of pre-existing conditions.

The problem (and one that the Democrats were guilty of- see Mark Udall) is that when you're getting outraised, attacked & struggling its very easy to fall back to outlandish & stupd attacks on your opponent; politics & political journalists love a repeating story & McSally has been a repeating disaster for years.

[Blair]

A lot of this current republican crop got to play politics on the easy settings; depressed democratic turnout, a massive cash advantage (both direct dollars & dark money) & the easy punching bag of Obamacare.

You could say the same for the current democratic bench; tons of money, historically unpopular president & easy punching bag of pre-existing conditions.

The problem (and one that the Democrats were guilty of- see Mark Udall) is that when you're getting outraised, attacked & struggling its very easy to fall back to outlandish & stupd attacks on your opponent; politics & political journalists love a repeating story & McSally has been a repeating disaster for years.

This almost perfectly describes Susan Collins' situation in 2014, when she won a 2-1 landslide. Collins is another example of a Republican incumbent who, when confronted with a serious challenge in a competitive environment, is unable to adequately cope. Joni Ernst, of course, meets this definition as well.

Collins to her credit has actually ran statewide races which were relatively tough; but yes she was very lucky to run in two waves that were helpful (2002 & 2014) & in an era where she could coast on her brand, Maine's own weirdness as as retail politics state & a weak democratic effort.

It's more similar to Bill Nelson in my view; who had plenty of tough races but didn't seem to understand that politics had changed over the last decade.

[Blair]

can someone give me a reason to ignore those two recent polls showing McSally winning?

I'm not being a doomer I'm just confused why there's been a relative lack of high quality polling of this race in the past week.