SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[Blair]

I was thinking earlier why some rich liberal hasn't been angered enough to dump £££ into an Anti-Lindsay PAC.

If you spent millions on boosting the third party conservative candidate, attacking Graham with Trump voters & well just generally attacking Graham over his record it could be the type of thing that could shift the needle by that 0.5-1% difference.

If I was an aging billionaire in covid time I'd happily waste money just to scare Lindsay & force him to go back on Fox News.

[Blair]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

[Blair]

Could someone who knows the politics of South Carolina give me a guide to how close it could get?

Looking at previous Senate & Governor races it seems that the Democrats actually have a pretty high average of between 40-45%...

What I find interesting is that when both Senate seats were on the ballot in 2014, Lindsey won by 17 despite being a two-term incumbent, and Tim Scott won by 24 despite being an appointee who had never won statewide. What happened with that?

My only memory of that race was that Lindsey had generally been seen as an unpopular & absent senator who was very much a creature of Washington; iirc he only got 65% in the GOP primary and had been one of those worried about a Primary.

[Blair]

I think it's just the fact that republican senators have generally been playing on the easy setting (unless they ran in 2008)

They've generally always had a cash advantage, have faced depressed democratic turnout, saw popular democrats retire & were able to run against unpopular hypotheticals (Obamacare)

It was quite funny as someone who first started followling US politics in 2014 when the biggest fear was republican Super PACS to watch in 2018 as numerous republicans complained about getting bombared by Bloomberg ads.

I'm sure someone has written about it but it will be interesting to see how long the energised money pit on the left continues after Trump

[Blair]

The ad the democrats Super PAC is running against Graham.

Very wise that it's not focused on the SC battle or him being a hypocrite- but is about drug prices, lobbyists & the swamp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTNh-n4J8vI&feature=youtu.be

[Blair]

Help me Lindsey Graham dot com please donate Lindsey Graham dot com the Democrats Lindsey Graham dot com

What ever happened to WinRed?

It's peak 2007 for a politician to refer to their website.

Funnily enough when you go to the site a weird & garbled ask for donations comes up

[Blair]

This is $10 million that isn't getting spent saving Collins or Tillis

This is a real race.


GOP super PAC preparing $10M ad blitz in South Carolina to boost Graham
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519134-gop-super-pac-preparing-10m-ad-blitz-in-south-carolina-to-boost-graham

[Blair]

Graham got murdered at this debate lol
I have not seen a beat down like that in a very long time

No it wasn't. I watched the whole debate and thought it was a draw. Harrison should have painted Graham as a sell out to big corporates, a warmonger or SC being one of the worsts states for education and other indexes. Meanwhile Graham turned his influence in Washington a to a positive. I predict Graham by 2-4 points

South Carolina iirc is a state that has a large military community.

[Blair]

Graham got murdered at this debate lol
I have not seen a beat down like that in a very long time

No it wasn't. I watched the whole debate and thought it was a draw. Harrison should have painted Graham as a sell out to big corporates, a warmonger or SC being one of the worsts states for education and other indexes. Meanwhile Graham turned his influence in Washington a to a positive. I predict Graham by 2-4 points

South Carolina iirc is a state that has a large military community.

Anti-war and anti-military are distinct (i should know, I'm anti-military). Large military population means when a war is going badly, everyone knows about it (growing up in Maryland, a big military state, the truth about Iraq was inescapable).

Yes but you don’t win as a Democrat in South Carolina by calling a veteran a warmonger. Besides I’d wager the military population in South Carolina is different to the military community in South Carolina

Even in 2008 Obama rejected it!

http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2008/04/06/obama-campaign-mccain-is-not-a-warmonger/

[Blair]

A relatively old (24-28 sep) internal poll but still..


https://abcnews4.com/news/local/new-poll-has-jaime-harrison-leading-sen-lindsey-graham-by-1-point-in-senate-race

https://www.dscc.org/news/new-dscc-poll-results-find-jaime-harrison-leading-vulnerable-senator-lindsey-graham-by-1-point-in-south-carolina-senate-race/

[Blair]

They've cut out the middle man at least!

I was thinking earlier why some rich liberal hasn't been angered enough to dump £££ into an Anti-Lindsay PAC.

If you spent millions on boosting the third party conservative candidate, attacking Graham with Trump voters & well just generally attacking Graham over his record it could be the type of thing that could shift the needle by that 0.5-1% difference.

If I was an aging billionaire in covid time I'd happily waste money just to scare Lindsay & force him to go back on Fox News.

[Blair]

For a state of that size this gets close to the amount of money where it actually becomes hard to work out just what to do with it.

That amount of money also will being allowling them to raise a sh**t ton more; on top of being able to do really creative things with digital ads & also frankly you can play around a lot. And it's worth remembering they get cheaper TV ads too compared to SUPER-PACs.

I'd go full boomer & start putting up billboards by the road.

[Blair]

For context I remember Hillary & Obama raising this between them in 2007

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1315250347015909376

[Blair]

That's a brilliant strategy by the Harrison campaign.  Lindsey Graham has flip flopped so many times on so many issues, Harrison could just use different quotes and videos of Graham in different targeted advertising.

1) Use right wing quotes from Lindsey to drive up liberal base voters and black voters in certain areas

2) Use video footage of Graham attacking Trump in conservative areas of the state

3) Use videos that highlight Graham's flip flopping and total lack of self-dignity in educated parts of the state and suburbs like Charleston.

I can think of a lot of words to describe Jaime Harrison; « consistent » is not one of them. When it comes to police defunding, he once said earlier this year that he's opposed to any effort to defund the police, but he accepted funds from groups that promote defunding the police. On transparency, he said, back in 2017, quote « Why the hell did it have to prompt @PressSec to get that damn tax return out of his file cabinet?! » And now he refuses to match the 11 years of state and federal tax returns that Graham released. He's just one to talk on flip-flop.

Lol it's obvious you've copy and pasted this from twitter.

[Blair]

Hilarous that Graham was so clearly hoping this hearing would save him yet he's managed to not only write some more ads for Harrison but also has given him another million dollars.

[Blair]

Has this race gone really quiet or is there just nothing to report on?