Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Skye]

Almost on par with Velasco's post, the CIS released their own poll for the election, and it's just what you'd expect:

https://twitter.com/CIS_Institucion/status/1486310001467662339

Keep in mind that this is the only poll that has the PSOE leading.

[Skye]

Polling for this Sunday's CyL election is prohibited starting from today. I compiled a polling average of the last polls starting from 2 weeks ago and the numbers look like this:

PP 33.6
PSOE 29.1
VOX 13.8
UP 7.1
Cs 5.1
EV 3.8 (This % is lower than it should be because one pollster apparently didn't poll the party)
UPL 3.4

[Skye]

Keep an eye on Valladolid. It's the largest Province and the one that will probably decide if Cs is in or out of the Legislature. Francisco Igea, CyL's VP, has his seat here and would probably be the only Cs legislator elected if the party's numbers are good enough in the province. I'd wager Cs needs to get ~6% of the vote here to feel comfortable in getting the seat. Of particular importance is the party's performance's in a few of Valladolid's younger "suburbs" (Arroyo, Zaratán) and neighborhoods (Villa del Prado, Las Villas-Covaresa) where the party is strongest in the region. But who knows, D'Hondt is a pain to calculate and a few variables could change that.

[Skye]

ABC is updating the results fairly quickly and has them in maps, in case you want to see a visualization of how it's going:

https://www.abc.es/elecciones/autonomicas/resultados/castilla-y-leon/

[Skye]

UP's numbers are pretty rough right now, and I'm not convinced that they'll get much better.

[Skye]

Cs is at 6.4% in the province of Valladolid, only half of the city is in. I think it's pretty safe to say Igea will retain his seat.

[Skye]

Precinct maps from eldiario:

https://www.eldiario.es/castilla-y-leon/mapa-consulta-resultados-elecciones-castilla-leon-calle-calle_1_8737828.html

and El País:

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-castilla-y-leon/2022-02-14/el-mapa-calle-a-calle-de-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-en-castilla-y-leon.html

[Skye]

I've honestly not paid as much attention as I should to the whole Casado-Ayuso fiasco, but I gotta say, I passed in front of Génova today and the front door was packed with journalists. Hopefully they got something juicy.

[Skye]

Pretty much a disaster for the left. Only 36% of the vote in Andalusia? That has to be a historic low.

[Skye]

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

Not true, whether Podemos is shut out of the Assembly or not is still an open question.

[Skye]

So far a disaster. The main site is in tatters and nothing has been counted for the Autonomous Communities elections, while the El Pais site is just completely glitchy.

[Skye]

Wow looks like Óscar Puente has been ousted as mayor of Valladolid.

[Skye]

81% counted in Madrid. Almeida gets a majority and Podemos is out of the city council.

[Skye]

Maybe he wants to end his misery already?

Anyway, like Velasco said, obituaries about Sánchez have been written before. This is certainly a *wild* decision though, I can't see how it benefits the left.

[Skye]

Ciudadanos is OUT of the general election. The party ends its existence with a whimper.

[Skye]

Checking precincts results, my neighborhood gave the right 81% of the vote, with 70% going to Ayuso alone.

[Skye]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1677403613315084288

Inb4 Skye becomes a Vox supporter.

At the very least Yo voy a votar was catchy, this certainly is not.

[Skye]

Man that PSC overperformance was something else. Didn't expect anything like it.

[Skye]

Not about to doxx myself by posting the entirety of my precinct results, but let’s just say the PP got 60%.

[Skye]

Palencia's swing may have had to do with the Vamos Palencia party, which is as you might have guessed a local party which ran in the municipal elections, it got 2% of the vote and might have disproportionately hurt the right.

For Valladolid, the left straight up improved its results in the city, which was something I did not expect.