UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Cassius]

I mean, if Starmer has to resign due to breaching COVID rules then it makes he and Labour look a little silly after spending six months screeching about Tory breaches of COVID rules. Sure, him resigning probably limits the damage significantly, but it still doesn’t look great (helps feed into a decent ‘Labour are hypocritical/opportunistic’ line, although of course the best way to spin this would be by the Tories saying that he shouldn’t resign and then announcing an amnesty for past breaches of COVID rules).

Meanwhile, a leadership election’s gonna be a faff for Labour and even if it is to be a coronation (hardly guaranteed), I can’t think of any potential candidates who would give the Conservatives more reason to worry than the present leader of the opposition.

[Cassius]

If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

[Cassius]

If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

What are Johnson's, let's say, three defining characteristics? Liar might just be one, he appears to lack any clear ideological leanings (he ranges from social liberalism to right-wing populism socially and free marketism to interventionism economically) and he still has what could be called charisma (at least compared to most other politicians). So, someone who is reasonably honest, has some clear ideological leanings and is uncharismatic.

This leads me to Javid, who doesn't seem to get talked about much. Javid hasn't been caught up in much dishonesty or scandal (again, this is relative), he seems to be a genuine Ayn Rand free market type with some kind of social libertarian streak and he speaks like a robot. He also comes from a much more humble background.

For me Javid has the problems of Truss (free-marketeer), Sunak (very wealthy City type) and Hunt (dull as dust) all rolled into one, plus he'd be a retread in any leadership contest (historically these don't tend to perform particularly well in Tory leadership elections), so I don't see him going far.

Really the party absolutely does need someone who is, if not exactly 'charismatic', a good communicator. The problem (and this seems to be a peculiarly British problem), is that the party's senior echelons are absolutely devoid of good communicators. This was also problem in the last leadership contest, which essentially pitted Johnson and Stewart against eight empty suits and oddballs (of course you could say that the two mentioned were also oddballs, but I think there's a fine distinction that can be drawn) who had nothing substantial to say about anything, but I think it's fair to say its probably gotten worse in the intervening time period.

Of course, this isn't necessarily a problem against the two knights of the realm, given that neither of them are exactly William Jennings Bryan. What it does do is open up the possibility for some sort of outsider to come in - I'm not familiar with Tugendhat as a communicator (I know he got very angry about Afghanistan last year but I didn't watch the speech), but given the poor quality of the cabinet and ex-cabinet candidates, I'd say he could certainly fancy his chances if he played his cards right. He's clearly on manoeuvres, given that he recently threw arch-rebel Tobias Ellwood under the bus for suggesting that Britain should rejoin the single market ('I'm really one of you ERG'). On the other hand, if there's one thing that the fabled 'moderate Conservative' politician is good at doing, it's playing their cards wrong, so we'll really have to see on him.

[Cassius]

I think there’s a good chance that he loses ‘by accident’ a la Heath in 1975.

[Cassius]

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry. 

Just to follow up from this - Patel released a statement through a spokesman, who said that “ The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening”.

Still odd to have no word from Patel herself, but hey, I guess that’s the probably as close as we’re going to get.

Also - Patel is only the 122nd MP to come out in favour of Johnson today, well short of the 180 Johnson needs to survive. For contrast, May had the public support of well over 50% of MPs by this point in the day. Johnson has just passed 34%. That doesn’t mean he’s going to lose (consensus still seems to be a win with a slim-to-moderate margin) but its not exactly an encouraging sign for him.

I mean, in 2018 there were reasonable reasons to support keeping May (if you were a Remainer/Reluctant Leaver who feared a Brexiteer takeover; concerns about changing horses mid-negotiations etc) - I can't think of a single reason to keep Boris Johnson, unless you're a minister whose career is irrevocably bound up with his remaining in office. Apart from the obvious (Dorries), I can't think of too many of those.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

Not sure about this line, chaps.

Vive la Chenin Blanc... quand même

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
Not sure about this line, chaps.

“Vote for me, fellas - it’s going to be more of the same from here on out!”
Is this a failure of impulse control, or just a startling level of self-confidence?

I think that he knows he's toast and has decided to go out with his head held high as opposed to grovelling for absolution from the parliamentary party.

Honestly, assuming things go badly for his successor, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he resurfaces after the next GE for a comeback special.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224
Not sure about this line, chaps.

“Vote for me, fellas - it’s going to be more of the same from here on out!”
Is this a failure of impulse control, or just a startling level of self-confidence?

I think that he knows he's toast and has decided to go out with his head held high as opposed to grovelling for absolution from the parliamentary party.

Honestly, assuming things go badly for his successor, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he resurfaces after the next GE for a comeback special.

Vote for me, don't you just miss  two of the most most chaotic and miserable times in British Political History.

Eh, people have short memories and the dearth of talent in the Conservative party is so great that I can see a gap in the market for him. Once he's no longer PM he can let the clown out of the straightjacket again and go back to being the loveable rogue he was prior to 2016.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533858511335079936https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533857921804664837

Before the events of the last couple of months or so, I’d find it difficult to believe that even Tory MP’s could be this stupid/spineless. On the other hand, given what we’ve seen, who knows what kompromat the whips have amassed on them.

[Cassius]

[Cassius]

The party should just disband itself. Frankly embarrassing.

[Cassius]

Johnson receives congratulations from Zelensky’s office.

Should really change his surname to Ivanovich and run in the 2028 Ukrainian Presidential Election.

[Cassius]

A (no) confidence vote only within the governing party is kind of weird in my opinion. It should have taken place in the entire parliament, just as it is the case in other countries with a parliamentary system of government. Ergo, if 140 Tory MPs don't have confidence in Johnson plus the entire opposition, he no longer has the support from a majority of the legislative.

This was a VONC in his leadership of the Conservative party - had he lost he would have (presumably) remained PM until the party chose a new leader.

[Cassius]

Parody worthy opinion piece for Ed Davey on the strikes in yesterday’s Grauniad. Recommended reading for a good laugh.

[Cassius]

You know, someone should just put a sword up the arse of that fat c**nt. Jesus Christ it takes longer to remove CEO's in slowly failing family firms. Can someone not just give the pig a good sh**tting.

[Cassius]

Labour had some originally English MPs in Scotland until at least the 1990s.

EDIT: in fact Tony Worthington only stood down in 2005.

Actually one of the Central Belt constituencies was represented by an Old Juddian (Tom Greatrex) until the deluge of 2015, so a very recent phenomenon.

[Cassius]

what do we think of Boris getting a blowie during work hours by his then mistress now wife and offering her a job as chief of staff at the FCO during that period? In any other country it would have been the talk of the town.

Coupled with the strikes - clearly we have become France!

[Cassius]

Tory MPs would be foolish not to take another look at Sunak as Johnson's successor.

[Cassius]

I wonder who'll be brought into replace Sunak and Javid in the Flensburg Government... if it even comes to that.

[Cassius]

Taking all bets: does Boris survive this latest Broadside? Does the government survive or need to be fully reconstituted in some fashion?

Well, we've been here before umpteen times over the last eight months - the 'unsurvivable moment' for Johnson suddenly becomes very survivable indeed.

On the other hand, he was already teetering on the edge thanks to the confidence vote and the by-election losses - I can't see how a batch of ministerial resignations doesn't put the numbers of those Tory MPs who want him gone over 50%. My guess is that he ploughs on into the next week, but that an anti-Johnson majority is elected to the 1922 Committee, paving the way for another confidence vote that he will surely lose.

[Cassius]

Fleet Street rumour mill says Simon Clarke, Secretary to the Treasury (Rishi’s old job) is being lined up as Chancellor. He tweeted out his loyalty just after Sunak resigned.

A man gunning for a spot in the history books as the both the tallest and shortest serving Chancellor since when-the-Hell-ever.

[Cassius]

For all of you excited for Boris' hopefully imminent demise, just remember that one of the first things that the new PM will do will likely be the implementation of "true conservative policies" to please the base.

Hope you're all on board with that. I can't wait for a swing to the right.

The Boys are back in town.

[Cassius]

Carrie Johnson will be resigning as Prime Minister's Spouse.

Rumours that Nadine Dorries considered likely replacement.

Methinks Dominic Raab’s a more likely candidate.

[Cassius]

author=All Along The Watchtower link=topic=350716.msg8670621#msg8670621 date=1657076873 uid=3460]
live footage of Conservative HQ

Several of the liberatores ended up knifing each other as well as Caesar so this is indeed apt.

[Cassius]

Der Untergang