This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[IceAgeComing]

James Cleverly has fessed up to being the heckler.

His version is that he called Alex Cunningham a "sh*t MP", but would never call Stockon North 'a sh*thole'. Not sure those words really sound alike, even in the audio clip.

Ben Houchen has published a statement, with a huge headshot of him looking sad, criticising the Home Secretary for denigrating Stockton:



Feels very plebgate at this point.

Baron Houchen (I wonder why he's not using that name here...) is under a lot of pressure in the Mayoral election next year: while I think he's still individually popular the Tory brand is toxic across the country but especially up here; and he's going to stand as a Conservative candidate for Mayor either in a General Election where they'll probably get a hiding and lose all of the marginals in this bit of the world; or as the last locals before a General Election which would be even worse. It is an easy attack line for Labour to use both in the Mayoral elections but also across the marginals in Teeside (including, awkwardly, Conservative held Stockton South) especially since a Tory party led by Sunak with Lord Cameron in a featured role isn't the sort of Conservative Party that did well in the North East last time.

[IceAgeComing]

...are there any truly safe Conservative seats in the North East? Using Electoral Calculus notionals (I know not perfect but more accessible before I put the Rallings/Thrasher into something more helpful) and you get Hexham which is historically safe (Tory since 1924, Labour almost won in 1997 but the Tories retained with a 200 majority) but in 2019 there wasn't that big a swing (its one of those seats that was safer in 2015 than in 2019 even with UKIP standing in 2015) so it would 'only' need an 11% swing to fall this time; and Northumberland North which is basically the old Berwick with the addition of Morpeth from Wansbeck which should be incredibly safe for the Tories (close to a 20% swing) but there's also a large Lib Dem vote to be squeezed so you'd assume chances for a higher Labour vote if there's tactical voting (it was one of those Liberal by-election gains in the 70s that they held for years afterwards; lost in 2015 so there's a higher legacy Lib Dem vote). Both of these seats are the best shot for a safe Conservative seat but they also are very different to County Durham and also have incumbent Tories that aren't standing down to my knowledge.

Further south there are a few seats in County Durham/Teesside but outside of Bishop Auckland (where he's said he's not standing) its places that appear to have incumbents not standing down or places where the Tories would lose in a landslide: especially if it has the dynamics that I think people anticipate it will (bigger swings in much of the North East and other places the Tories did especially well in in 2019). There are more safer options in North Yorkshire but again those incumbents probably aren't standing down (cannot forsee a challenge in Richmond and Northallerton...) and its if he's so dedicated to the North East I feel like a chicken run to somewhere next door (where people will know he's a local MP that's done a runner) would at least be as embarrassing as chicken running to Surrey would be.

[IceAgeComing]

Would calling for a new election (late May/early June perhaps) "stop the clock" on a possible VoNC?

Or is the process of going thru a VoNC completely separate from the dissolution of Parliament?

So its complicated.

The Vote of No Confidence process requires the existance of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs. When parliament is dissolved then people are no longer MPs automatically which may automatically dissolve that committee and end the term of the chair; so there may be no one present to call an election. In any case it would require Conservatives to have a vote and I suspect mid-election no one would want that for quite obvious reasons - so people publicly calling for it would probably find themselves losing Conservative backing in the election at that point.

However Lascelles Principles (which guide the thinking of the palace around requests to dissolve) include a provision that if the palace think there's someone else that could command the confidence of the house they would decline a dissolution. This is designed for Hung Parliament situations where confidence votes might naturally lead to government changing (the precedent on this was the King/Byng affair in Canada which admittedly did not end well - but it is an example of testing parliament before an early election) but its believed that if Sunak went to the palace between the VoNC being announced and it being held the Palace would decline until the vote happens: as then the question would be around if the Conservative Party would choose someone new to command the confidence of the House. if he was confirmed in the party then that wouldn't be a problem even if he won by one vote as the assumption would be that the party would unite around him until proven otherwise. I guess there's theoretically a window in the wash-up period (the days between the PM calling an election and parliament formally being prorogued; where basically the big two parties hash out deals on what legislation both agree should get through parliament before the election, and what needs to be dropped) where they could change leader; but then I wonder if the Palace would delay accepting the PMs resignation until after an election as he'd be a caretaker in any case.

So to summarise: he probably has the power to pre-empt a confidence vote if they haven't gotten to the formal point of triggering it yet (as at that point he would theoretically be the only person that could command the confidence of the house; as there is no other rival leader or official challenge) and that calling of an election would stall procedings; while if Brady announced a Confidence Vote tomorrow he could not go to the palace immediately after and call an election because his position as the only person that could govern with the confidence of the house is challenged.

[IceAgeComing]

Also does any promise from Sunak really mean anything? If the right of the party get the leadership they might decide to not appoint Street who is clearly not on the right: or indeed completely move away from the levelling up rhetoric