Which of these three swing states is most likely to

[Rockefeller GOP]

Depends on what the parties do and if those states' trends remain the same.  VA and NC are lurching left because East Coast liberals are moving in and minority populations are growing.  Once upon a time and not so long ago ('70s and '80s), Northeast transplants were actually making the South much more fiscally conservative and Republican.  So you never know.

Florida is the safe bet.